Rapeseed Harvest Forecast in Ukraine 2025: Areas Reduced Due to Drought
According to experts from the company “Limagrain”, Ukraine plans to harvest about 900 thousand hectares of rapeseed this season from the 1.1 million hectares sown. These figures are due to challenging weather conditions, particularly drought during the sowing and wintering periods, which led to partial loss of seedlings and weak plant development.
This is reported by AgroReview
Impact of Drought and Winter Frosts on Rapeseed Yields
Artem Yuriev, the manager for grain crops and winter rapeseed at “Limagrain”, notes that the season started under very difficult weather conditions.
“At the time of sowing, there was a severe drought across Ukraine, especially in the central, eastern, and northern regions, where precipitation was very scarce or absent for almost half a year. This negatively affected the sown areas.”
A significant reduction in rapeseed sown areas has been recorded in certain regions: in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava — by half, in Sumy — by two to three times. In Cherkasy and Kirovohrad regions, the sown areas were also below planned levels. Conversely, in Odesa and Mykolaiv regions, the sown areas increased — by two and one and a half times, respectively, which is explained by a higher amount of precipitation in these regions, atypical for southern Ukraine. Meanwhile, sowing activities in the western regions of Ukraine proceeded as planned, ensuring the full volume of projected areas.
Consequences of Weather Conditions for Wintering and Future Harvest
According to experts, due to imperfect weather conditions, some of the crops could not gain sufficient vegetative mass before winter. These plants entered the cold period in a weak state — in the phase of two to four leaves. Although in previous years, weak crops usually wintered without significant problems, this time the winter months proved unpredictable.
“In December and January, it was abnormally warm, and in February, frosts of up to -20 °C occurred with no snow. This led to the death of weak and underdeveloped crops.”
If in 2023 the rapeseed sown areas were about 1.3 million hectares, then in 2025 this figure decreased to approximately 1.1 million hectares. It is estimated that at least 100 thousand hectares did not germinate due to drought in the central and eastern regions, and another 100-150 thousand hectares were weak and either did not winter well or had poor winter survival. Such crops will likely need to be reseeded with spring crops or require re-sowing.
Experts predict that about 900 thousand hectares of rapeseed will be harvested — less than the previous year, which may negatively impact the export volumes of this crop in the 2025/26 marketing year.