Rapeseed Prices in Paris Under Pressure: Prospects for Ukraine in the 2025/26 Season
The global rapeseed market remains influenced by rising imports and expected increases in production in EU countries for the 2025/26 season. Prices for rapeseed in Paris are also pressured by a significant supply from the old harvest, which has caused a decrease in prices for August futures to €469/ton (approximately $531/ton), down 1.5% compared to last month.
This is reported by AgroReview
Dynamics of Rapeseed and Canola Imports in the EU and Worldwide
One of the key reasons for the price drop is not only the 8% increase in rapeseed harvest in the EU but also the decline in oil and biodiesel prices. Favorable weather conditions in Europe are improving crop conditions, leading to a significant decrease in prices for the new rapeseed harvest — by €35–64/ton less than for rapeseed from the old harvest.
Since the beginning of the season, as of May 4, rapeseed imports to the EU have already reached 5.68 million tons, which is 14% higher than last year’s figure. In particular, 2.36 million tons (41.5%) were supplied from Ukraine compared to 3 million tons the previous year, 2.346 million tons (41.3%) from Australia compared to 1.36 million tons, and 621 thousand tons (10.9%) from Canada compared to 103 thousand tons last year. The import of canola from Australia and Canada has particularly surged in the second half of the season, linked to rising prices in the EU.
In March 2025, Australia exported a record 907 thousand tons of canola, of which 719 thousand tons went to the EU (compared to 250 thousand tons the previous year). From October 2024 to March 2025, Australia shipped 3.7 million tons of canola, exceeding last season’s volumes (3.22 million tons).
Prospects for Ukrainian Rapeseed and Global Trends
In Ukraine, due to dry weather and spring frosts in March and April, a poorer rapeseed harvest is expected in the new season. This may support high price levels: currently, traders are offering forward contracts at $500–505/ton for delivery to Black Sea ports, despite prices reaching $560–565/ton in the current season.
The global canola market is also undergoing changes: in March, prices in Canada sharply fell following the announcement of tariffs by China and the USA, which spurred an increase in exports. Specifically, in March, China imported 471 thousand tons of canola, and over the first quarter — more than 1 million tons. In total, from August to March 2025, Canada exported 3.713 million tons of canola, of which 474 thousand tons went to the EU.
The USDA in April 2025 raised its forecast for rapeseed imports to China for the current season to 4 million tons (down from 5.486 million tons in the previous season), but these estimates may increase by the end of the marketing year.
July canola futures increased by 7.8% over the month to 703.9 CAD/ton ($508.7/ton), after falling to 565 CAD/ton in early March. This is the highest level since the beginning of the season, encouraging farmers to expand their planting areas.
November canola futures rose by 5% to 662 CAD/ton, linked to expected reductions in canola stocks in Canada. The strengthening of the Canadian dollar by 3% over the month narrowed the gap between July canola futures and Paris rapeseed quotes to $22/ton, whereas in March it was $120–140/ton.
According to the Canadian Grain Commission, canola exports from Canada since the beginning of the season have reached 7.694 million tons, significantly exceeding last year’s figure (4.546 million tons). Domestic canola consumption in the country reached a record 8.693 million tons (compared to 8.116 million tons in 2024), and the total projected export is 8.3 million tons.