Rapeseed Prices in Ukraine Reach Seasonal High: Market Analysis and Prospects

Since the beginning of the armed conflict with Iran, oil prices have risen by 35%, but this has not led to a significant increase in rapeseed prices. The main reason is that biodiesel producers have not recorded an increase in demand for biofuels, which typically account for only 10-15% of the cost of traditional fuels.

This is reported by AgroReview

End of the Rapeseed Export Season and Prices in Ukraine

In the 2025/26 marketing year, the rapeseed export season in Ukraine is coming to a close. The remaining rapeseed stocks are so small that they do not allow for the formation of full shiploads. As a result, most large international companies have already ceased their purchases, and only a few traders continue to buy rapeseed with delivery until May 1.

Last week, export prices for rapeseed reached the highest level of the season — $570–580 per ton, or 26,500–27,000 UAH per ton delivered to Black Sea ports. This forced processing enterprises to raise their buying prices to 24,500–25,500 UAH per ton delivered to the factory.

At the same time, prices for rapeseed oil delivered to EU countries have only risen to $1,300–1,320 per ton. This corresponds to a level of approximately $1,200 per ton delivered to the port or to the western border of Ukraine.

However, this week, export prices for rapeseed have decreased to $570 per ton due to reduced competition and low demand.

Dynamics of Global Markets and Harvest Forecasts

In the European market, May rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange are showing significant fluctuations before the expiration date (April 25). Last week, they rose by 3.7% and reached a seasonal high of €516.75 per ton ($609, which is 10.6% higher since the start of the war). August futures increased by 2.6% to €502 per ton (a total increase of 6.5% since the beginning of hostilities). Despite the decline in global oil prices and expectations of reaching an agreement with Iran, which could further lower oil prices, rapeseed quotations continue to rise.

Interestingly, the market has hardly reacted to the new forecast from the German Agricultural Cooperative Association (DRV), which indicates that in 2026, the harvest of winter rapeseed in the country could increase by 4.5% compared to the previous year, reaching 4.154 million tons.

“In the 2025/26 marketing year (as of April 12), the EU imported only 3.86 million tons of rapeseed, of which 36% came from Ukraine, 31.2% from Australia, and 15.4% from Canada. At this rate of imports, it is unlikely that the projected USDA figure of 5.7 million tons will be reached by the end of the season, although last season’s import was a record 7.96 million tons.”

On the Winnipeg exchange, May canola futures traded in the range of 708–710 Canadian dollars per ton (approximately $519 per ton, an increase of 2.5% since the start of the war). November futures for the new crop canola are trading at 722 Canadian dollars per ton.

The price difference between Paris and Winnipeg is about $90 per ton, making Canadian canola shipments to the EU economically advantageous, especially against the backdrop of stagnant demand from China and low export rates.

According to industry estimates and data from Statistics Canada, from September 1, 2025, to April 1, 2026, canola processing in Canada amounted to about 7.1–7.3 million tons, which is 6–8% more than in the same period last year. The forecast for the end of the season is around 12 million tons, while canola exports have already reached 4.2–4.4 million tons out of the projected 6.5–7 million tons.