Record Harvest of Grains and Oilseeds: How It Will Affect Exports and Prices in Ukraine

In 2025, Ukraine plans to harvest 81.4 million tons of grains and oilseeds, surpassing the 2024 figure of 79 million tons. With such volumes, the export potential in the current season could reach 49 million tons, while 46.7 million tons were exported in the previous year.

This is reported by AgroReview

Logistical Challenges and Impact on Exports

Experts emphasize that achieving optimistic export forecasts directly depends on resolving logistical issues. Currently, Ukrainian grain exports are under serious pressure due to ongoing attacks by the Russian Federation on the country’s critical infrastructure — particularly the energy system, railways, and seaports. These strikes hinder transportation routes from functioning at full capacity, complicating the export of the harvest.

Export restrictions threaten not only financial losses for Ukrainian farmers but could also have a significant negative impact on the country’s economy and balance of payments.

“The inability to export sufficient volumes of the harvest will not only lead to losses for Ukrainian farmers but could also be a severe blow to Ukraine’s economy and its balance of payments.”

Detailed Forecasts for Major Crops

According to analysts, the harvest and export of major crops in 2025 are forecasted as follows:

• Wheat: 22.5 million tons (22.4 million tons in 2024), with up to 16.5 million tons for export.
• Barley: 4.9 million tons (5.6 million tons in 2024), export — up to 2.3 million tons.
• Sunflower: 11.5 million tons (12.8 million tons in 2024). Almost the entire harvest will be processed in Ukraine — 11.4 million tons.
• Rapeseed: 3.2 million tons (3.8 million tons in 2024), export — up to 2.1 million tons, the remainder for domestic processing.
• Soy: 5 million tons (6.8 million tons last year), export — up to 2.5 million tons, the rest for domestic processing.

Regarding corn, experts note favorable weather conditions and high yields, allowing for a forecasted harvest of 32 million tons (25.9 million tons last year). The potential export of corn could reach up to 25 million tons.

For 2026, specialists expect the total harvest of grains and oilseeds to reach 84.5 million tons, with exports around 50 million tons.