Rising Corn Prices in Ukraine: Impact of Harvest Delays and Market Quotations
In Ukraine, corn prices are showing a steady increase amid delays in harvest and speculative rises in market quotations. Despite a decrease in precipitation intensity, the prolonged lack of warmth is slowing down the drying of the grain. As a result, the moisture content of corn remains high, leading to harvesting on areas that are half the size compared to this period last year. This negatively affects the fulfillment of contractual obligations for grain supply to ports, forcing traders to raise purchase prices to form export batches.
This is reported by AgroReview
Harvest Statistics and Price Dynamics
As of October 23, 31% of the corn area has been harvested in Ukraine, amounting to 1.315 million hectares, with a total yield of 7.713 million tons and an average yield of 5.87 tons per hectare. In comparison, last year by this date, 15.4 million tons had already been harvested from 67% of the area at a yield of 5.72 tons per hectare.
Purchase prices for Ukrainian corn have increased by 100–150 UAH per ton over the week and currently stand at 9650–9700 UAH per ton (202–205 USD per ton) with delivery to Black Sea ports. This has also been influenced by the increased exchange rate of the dollar to the hryvnia by 0.9%.
Farmers are currently not rushing to sell corn, focusing on harvesting and hoping for further price increases. At the same time, they prefer to sell sunflower at more attractive prices.
International Factors and Market Impact
On global exchanges, the rise in corn quotations in the U.S. offers hope for price recovery after reaching a five-year low. Over the week, December corn futures on the Chicago Exchange rose by 2.9% to 170 USD per ton, although they showed a decrease of 5.1% over the past two weeks. Experts link this to the anticipated meeting of U.S. and Chinese leaders on October 30 and the potential signing of a new trade agreement, which could restore exports of American soybeans and corn to China.
The intensity of precipitation in Ukraine has decreased, but the lack of warmth continues to slow down the drying of corn. Due to high moisture, corn is currently harvested on half the area compared to a year ago. This disrupts supply plans to the port under previously signed contracts, forcing traders to raise purchase prices to accumulate the necessary batches for export.
Due to the suspension of USDA operations, there is currently no official information on the progress of the harvest in the U.S. However, analysts estimate that as of October 27, American farmers have harvested corn from 72% of the area, which is slightly less than the 81% harvested last year.
Exports of corn from Brazil have intensified, which, along with supplies from the U.S. and Ukraine, increases competition in the global market and creates additional pressure on prices. According to forecasts, Brazil will export 6.19 million tons of corn in October. Ukraine has exported only 356 thousand tons of this crop in the first 22 days of October.
According to market participants, the South Korean company Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased about 204 thousand tons of feed corn from the U.S., South Africa, or South American countries at a price of 243.98 USD per ton C&F for delivery in February 2026. In such conditions, to remain competitive, the cost of Ukrainian corn delivered to the port should be around 190–195 USD per ton.
Weather forecasts for the “corn belt” of the U.S. and Ukraine for the next 7–10 days promise warm, dry conditions, which will facilitate faster harvesting and increase the supply of grain in the market. This further pressures prices, so experts advise Ukrainian farmers to take advantage of the current price increase and not delay sales.