Russia plans an export quota of 20 million tons of grain for the second half of the season
The Russian Federation is considering the possibility of establishing an export quota for grain crops of 20 million tons for the second half of the current season. This figure exceeds last year’s quota but remains lower than in the marketing year 2023/24.
This is reported by AgroReview
Conditions and features of the new export quota
According to the published data, the introduction of the quota is being considered for the period from February 15 to June 30. The proposed volume will include crops such as wheat, corn, and barley, while rye is not included in the quota. The restrictions apply to the export of grain outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
The new project also provides for a possible revision of the quota distribution mechanism, taking into account historical supply indicators to EAEU countries. This means that companies that previously actively exported grain within the union may receive a larger share of the quota. The final volumes and conditions may still be clarified before the relevant resolution is approved.
Dynamics of quota changes and yield
Unlike the previous year, the current export quota covers all major grain crops, not just wheat. Last season, the quota was 10.6 million tons within the 2024/25 marketing year.
Despite the fact that the new quota significantly exceeds last year’s, it falls short of the volumes for the 2023/24 marketing year, when, due to a record harvest, Russia initially set a quota of 24 million tons and later increased it by another 5 million tons. At that time, approximately 21 million tons of wheat, 3 million tons of corn, and another 3 million tons of barley were exported within the total quota of 29 million tons.
As traders note, the announcement of the new quota was not unexpected:
“20 million tons for the second half of the season seems like a logical figure and is unlikely to affect prices.”
According to official forecasts, in the 2025/26 marketing year, grain exports from Russia could reach 50 million tons, of which about 20 million tons had already been shipped by the end of October. In November, according to estimates from analytical agencies, exports could additionally amount to another 5.5 million tons.
Russia is likely to harvest its third-largest crop in history: wheat production has already reached 93.85 million tons, including that harvested in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, with harvesting completed on 97% of the area. The gross barley harvest stands at 20.53 million tons with a similar level of completion, while corn has only been harvested on 43% of the area, yielding about 7 million tons.