Russia’s Share of the Global Wheat Market Will Decrease to 20%

According to the results of the 2024/25 agricultural season, which will end on June 30, Russia’s share of the global wheat market will decrease to 20% from 25% in the previous season. Despite this, the country maintains its leading position in terms of export volumes of this crop. The main reasons for the decline in export volumes are not only the decrease in the 2024 harvest but also negative profitability for exporters, as well as high yields in competing countries, as reported by

This is reported by AgroReview

“Russian Gazette”

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In the previous season, thanks to a record harvest, Russia exported 74 million tons of grain, of which 54 million tons was wheat. According to forecasts from the Union of Grain Exporters and Producers, in the marketing year 2024/25, exports may reach 53 million tons, including 43 million tons of wheat. Meanwhile, analysts from the Institute for Agricultural Market Conjuncture (IKAR) estimate possible wheat export volumes at 38.5-42.5 million tons, depending on the further development of the situation.

Factors Influencing Wheat Exports

Several factors affect export volumes, including a limited quota of 10.6 million tons in the second half of the season, the strengthening of the ruble, and the reluctance of farmers to lower prices. At the same time, the price of grain on the global market remains stable due to an oversupply of products. Wheat stocks in Europe have exceeded forecasts, and the United States has become the cheapest exporter of this crop. This has led to Romanian and Bulgarian wheat currently being sold at lower prices than Russian wheat.

Main Markets and Changes in Demand

Despite increasing competitive pressure, Russia remains a leader in wheat exports, although its share will fall to 20%. The main buyers of Russian grain remain Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Bangladesh, and Saudi Arabia. However, due to decreased demand, supplies to Turkey, Iran, China, and Pakistan have contracted. In contrast, there is an increase in exports to African countries such as Nigeria, Kenya, and Morocco.

Given the resumption of purchases by Iran and a possible increase in demand from Turkey, Russian exporters hope to achieve sales volumes within the range of 9-9.5 million tons under the export quota.

The further development of the grain and oilseed market in Ukraine and the Black Sea region will be discussed at the 23rd International Conference, which will take place on April 24 in Kyiv.