Sharp Rise in Urea Prices Causes Demand for Fertilizer to Halt in Ukraine
This is reported by AgroReview
In Ukraine, a rapid increase in urea prices has been recorded: the cost of this nitrogen fertilizer for farmers has risen by approximately 10,000 hryvnias per ton, including VAT, customs duties, and logistics costs. This price hike has triggered panic in the market and a sharp decline in demand, as most agricultural producers have refused to purchase urea at the new prices.
Impact of Geopolitical Events on Fertilizer Prices
Against the backdrop of logistical constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, which have affected the prices of oil and ammonia—the primary raw materials for the production of nitrogen fertilizers—global urea prices surged by nearly 200 dollars per ton in just a few days. According to Leonid Shnaidman, managing partner of the company “Agropartner,” from March 2 to 4, the price of urea reached unprecedented levels, which led to the halt in demand from Ukrainian farmers, despite the availability of fertilizer in warehouses.
“At this price, urea is not needed by farmers. There are no alternatives, so everyone is panicking right now. No one understands how to buy fertilizer normally. Some of our clients have not yet fulfilled their urea needs: they planned to buy it, but we currently cannot provide the product at a reasonable price. Supplying it with an additional 10,000 hryvnias is foolish, and no one will pay for that. We have completely open relationships: we offer the product at that price plus our small margin. If you are interested—we will deliver. If it’s too expensive—yes, we are not buying it ourselves right now, and we don’t recommend it to you,” Shnaidman noted.
Market Expectations and Possible Scenarios for Future Price Fluctuations
Shnaidman emphasizes that the market is currently in a state of uncertainty and is awaiting developments in the Middle East. Market participants have adopted a wait-and-see approach due to the lack of forecasts regarding the duration of the war in Iran. According to the expert, “Agropartner” has already fulfilled all previous contracts and has not opened short positions, so clients can be assured of the availability of resources to meet obligations.
He also recalled that a similar situation occurred in June 2025, when, due to expectations of a prolonged conflict, urea prices increased by 70 dollars per ton in two days, but after the operation ended, the price fell by 100 dollars per ton within four days. In Shnaidman’s opinion, a similar scenario is possible this time, but with even greater price fluctuations—initially rising by about 200 dollars per ton, followed by a probable drop of approximately 250 dollars per ton.