Soybean Imports to China May Reach Record Levels in May-June 2025

Soybean imports to China have recently fallen to their lowest level in the past twelve years, while consumption rates remain low. Despite this, Brazil, the leading supplier of soybeans to China, has harvested a record crop, and its shipments to the Chinese market have peaked this season. At the same time, analysts are noting significant discrepancies between the official data from Chinese customs and the export statistics from Brazilian companies.

This is reported by AgroReview

Discrepancies in Statistics and Brazil’s Records

Official data from the Chinese customs service indicates that soybean import volumes for March-April amounted to only 9.6 million tons, which is 32% lower than the same period last year and the lowest figure since 2013. The total soybean import volume for the first seven months of the 2024/25 season has also turned out to be the minimum in the last six years.

Meanwhile, Brazilian traders estimate that soybean supplies from Brazil to China from February to April of this year remained at a record high—approximately 13% more than last year. However, from September to January, shipments from Brazil decreased by nearly 40% year-on-year.

Import Growth Forecasts for the Coming Months

Given the significant discrepancies in reporting, analysts emphasize the importance of carefully analyzing the monthly data from Chinese customs to ensure that the record exports are indeed reflected in the official statistics.

“Analysts predict that soybean imports to China in May and June could reach around 11 million tons, setting a new record for this period. This is 3% more than last year, although the overall figure will remain at a six-year low, as there are only three months left until the end of the marketing year.”

China, which purchases over 70% of all soybean exports from Brazil, could significantly impact global trade figures for this product, as Brazil’s export volumes in 2025 are expected to be record-breaking. Current trends suggest that actual imports may even exceed official expectations.

This week, China raised its soybean import estimate for the 2024/25 year to 98.6 million tons, up from a previous forecast of 94.6 million tons. According to the USDA, China’s import volume for the 2024/25 marketing year could reach 108 million tons, which, however, is lower than last year’s record level of 112 million tons.