Soybeans to Be a Key Topic of Negotiations Between the US and China in March 2026

This is reported by AgroReview

Soybeans may become a central issue on the agenda during the upcoming negotiations between trade representatives from the US and China, set to take place in Paris this weekend. The outcomes of these talks are expected to clarify when Beijing will resume purchases of American soybeans, which remain a focal point for global agricultural markets.

Negotiations Ahead of the US-China Leaders’ Summit

The meeting will include US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The negotiations will occur just before the scheduled summit in Beijing at the end of March, which will involve US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Soybeans traditionally play a significant role in the trade relations between the two nations. On one hand, Chinese livestock producers have a pressing need for imported feed, while on the other, American farmers are largely dependent on the supply of this crop to China. Following prolonged trade restrictions in 2025, when Chinese purchases of American soybeans nearly ceased, Beijing swiftly fulfilled its commitment to buy 12 million tons of beans in October. However, after that, the pace of imports slowed again, and the question of future purchases remains open.

“The market consensus is that the meeting of the two leaders will undoubtedly create incentives for new purchases,” noted Wuchan Zhongda Futures analyst Men Zhangyu.

Uncertainty in the Soybean Market and the Impact of Geopolitics

As part of the trade truce between Washington and Beijing, an agreement was reached to import 25 million tons of soybeans annually from 2026 to 2028. After fulfilling the first part of the commitments, traders assumed that Chinese companies would not make new purchases until the US harvest, expected in September, when market prices traditionally decline. However, in February, President Donald Trump announced on the social media platform Truth Social that China is considering increasing imports to 20 million tons this season. The Chinese side has not confirmed this information, adding uncertainty to the market.

The situation is also influenced by external political factors: tensions in the Middle East, the war in Iran, and a US Supreme Court ruling that limits presidential powers regarding the imposition of trade tariffs. Additionally, the active harvest in the Southern Hemisphere and China’s ongoing diversification of suppliers, primarily through Brazilian soy, should be taken into account.

Since October, purchases of American beans have primarily been made by China’s state importers, which is more of a political than an economic nature. Private enterprises currently prefer cheaper and more accessible Brazilian products. American soybeans are limited in supply and are subject to a 13% tariff, which significantly affects competitiveness.

Analysts note that political agreements may once again outweigh economic factors, and new soybean purchases could serve as a symbolic gesture ahead of the meeting between the two leaders.

“We have not seen so-called ‘gestures of goodwill’ in the form of soybean purchases from China for 10 days in March—although this used to happen during negotiations,” added Stroud.