Spring Drought in Ukraine and Europe: Risks for Harvest and Global Grain Market
This spring has proven critically dry for much of Europe, particularly for Ukraine. The lack of precipitation and unusually warm weather recorded since March are already causing serious complications in agriculture. This is reported by LIGA.net citing material from POLITICO.
This is reported by AgroReview
Climate Situation and Consequences for the Region
According to the European Drought Observatory (EDO), the middle of spring has been marked by significant climate deviations. Parts of Poland, Ukraine, Greece, the Balkans, Sweden, Ireland, and Germany have entered the “orange” warning zone, while the southeastern coast of Spain is already marked as a “red alert” region.
The cause of this situation is a combination of low precipitation and high temperatures, emphasizes leading EDO scientist Andrea Toreti. He notes that last year Europe experienced the hottest March on record.
“The situation we are observing is concerning. If there is no rain in the coming weeks, we will see serious consequences, particularly for agriculture.”
According to Toreti, climate forecasts for the next three months do not provide grounds for optimism, especially in regions that are already experiencing water shortages. The situation is most difficult in Central and Eastern Europe, where the soil has not recovered from previous droughts due to a low-snow winter.
Disruption in Grain Exports and Threat to Ukraine
Ukraine and Poland, which are key exporters of grain crops, find themselves among the most affected countries. Agricultural sector researcher Klaas Nendel, in his analytical note distributed by the German Meteorological Service, warned of a possible poor harvest season that could have significant consequences for the global grain market.
“A potential poor harvest season due to severe drought could significantly impact the global grain market.”
He also emphasized that the region known as the “breadbasket of Europe” could lose a substantial portion of its potential harvest. Compounding the difficulties is the war situation – due to Russian shelling, large-scale fires are occurring in fields and forests across the country, further worsening the state of the agricultural sector, reports POLITICO.
Additionally, in 2025, Ukraine recorded a lack of spring flooding. Deputy Head of the Hydrological Forecasts Department at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, Victoria Korniienko, reported that in March, the average monthly river flow was less than 20% of the norm. This creates risks for sectors that depend on water resources.
“If the situation does not change, it may worsen even further during the summer period.”