Sunflower Deficit in Ukraine: Processors Risk Running Out of Raw Materials

In 2025, Ukrainian oilseed processing enterprises may face a significant deficit of sunflower seeds. Estimates suggest that the gap between production capacity and the supply of seeds could reach around 10.2 million tons, leading to increased competition among factories for raw materials and significantly reducing processing margins.

This is reported by AgroReview

Sunflower Harvest Forecast and Market Impact

According to a report by Kernel for the first quarter of the 2026 financial year (July-September), the market situation appears tense. The forecasted sunflower harvest in Ukraine for 2025 remains at 11.4 million tons — the lowest figure in the last decade.

“The market environment for the oilseed processing segment this season looks more challenging than last year. As the harvesting campaign concludes, our forecast for the sunflower harvest in Ukraine for 2025 remains at 11.4 million tons, which is the lowest figure in the last ten years,” the report states.

The company emphasizes that the market has not yet encountered such a significant raw material deficit, which means that nearly half of the national processing enterprises may operate underloaded.

Enterprise Adaptation and Performance Results

Experts at Kernel believe that those processors who have the ability to temporarily switch to other oilseed crops, such as soybeans or rapeseed, will be able to navigate this season more stably, partially compensating for the sunflower shortage with alternative crops.

In the first quarter of the 2026 financial year, the agroholding processed 559 thousand tons of oilseeds, which is 18% less compared to last year. The primary reason for this reduction was the decrease in contract processing volumes — 16 thousand tons compared to 132 thousand tons last year.

The majority of the processed raw materials traditionally consisted of sunflower, with a partial volume coming from soybeans and rapeseed.