Sunflower Oil Prices Will Remain Stable in 2026 — Expert Forecast
In 2026, the Ukrainian sunflower oil market is expected to maintain stable prices without significant increases in the cost of this product. The main factors influencing this situation are competition with cheaper vegetable oils on the global market, restrained pricing, and the reluctance of agricultural producers to sell sunflowers at undervalued rates.
This is reported by AgroReview
Impact of Global Trends and Domestic Agricultural Policies
As explained by Leonid Kozachenko, president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, sunflower oil traditionally occupies a higher price niche compared to other vegetable fats, primarily palm oil. This is due to lower production volumes and significantly higher costs for growing the necessary raw materials.
According to the expert, the war in Ukraine and global economic upheavals have accelerated inflationary processes, which have been reflected in the rising prices of most food products, including vegetable oils. At the same time, the high price of sunflower oil is gradually changing consumer preferences in various countries. In particular, in Europe, where palm oil was viewed with caution, there is an increasing demand for this cheaper product, which helps keep global sunflower oil prices at their current level, and thus in the Ukrainian market as well.
Logistical Challenges and Producers’ Position
In addition to external factors, internal ones also affect the pricing situation — specifically, the rising costs of transportation, storage, and export of agricultural products. In recent years, logistical costs have significantly increased, negatively impacting producers. However, this has not led to an increase in retail prices for sunflower oil.
Domestic prices for sunflowers currently remain low, while global quotations have practically not changed. In this situation, farmers are faced with a choice: sell their harvest at an unprofitable price or store it in hopes of better conditions. A significant portion of Ukrainian agrarians, especially those with their own grain storage facilities, are currently refraining from selling sunflowers.
“At least half of these farmers are not ready to sell sunflowers at current prices — 26-27 thousand hryvnias per ton. For them, this is economically unfeasible, as the market previously allowed selling products for over 30 thousand hryvnias per ton,” Kozachenko notes.
Despite this, holding raw materials in warehouses does not provoke a shortage of oil in the domestic market. Processing enterprises are operating steadily, and existing stocks are sufficient to meet consumer demand. All these factors together ensure relative stability in the sunflower oil market in Ukraine.
According to the forecast from the president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, sunflower oil prices in 2026 will remain close to current levels. Significant price increases are not expected, even considering the overall economic instability.
The expert does not rule out short-term fluctuations in value due to unforeseen circumstances — for example, crop losses, damage to logistical infrastructure, or temporary supply disruptions. However, such changes, according to the specialist’s estimates, will be limited and short-lived.