Sunflower Oil Remains Ukraine’s Main Export Product in 2025/26 Marketing Year

Despite a significant decrease in production, sunflower oil retains its status as a key foreign exchange commodity for Ukraine. The country maintains its leadership in the global sunflower oil supply market, despite a number of challenges in the 2025/26 marketing year, which analysts describe as one of the most difficult in the last five years.

This is reported by AgroReview

Factors Contributing to Production Decline: Area and Weather Conditions

The reduction in oil production began during the fieldwork. The area planted with sunflowers this season is 5.2 million hectares, which is 2.6% less than last year. However, a more significant impact came from low yields caused by a lack of rainfall: it dropped to 2.0 tons per hectare, which is 10.6% worse than last year’s figure. As a result, the sunflower seed harvest is estimated at 10.1 million tons — 10.6% less than last year and 13.5% below the average of the last five years. The production forecast for sunflower oil in the 2025/26 marketing year is 4.3 million tons, which is 13.1% less compared to the previous season and 22.2% lower than the five-year average.

Export Prospects and Impact on Foreign Exchange Earnings

Export forecasts remain a topic of discussion among leading analysts. According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, the export volume in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to be 4.1 million tons, which is 14% less than last year. Meanwhile, according to the USDA’s March report, exports could reach 4.38 million tons, as the American agency raised its sunflower harvest forecast in Ukraine to 11 million tons. Despite discrepancies in the figures, experts agree that the majority of the produced oil will be directed to foreign markets. Domestic consumption in Ukraine continues to decline: this year it stands at 240,000 tons, which is 2% less than in the previous season. This is influenced by factors such as forced migration, occupation of territories, and ongoing hostilities.

“The area under sunflowers this season is 5.2 million hectares — 2.6% less compared to the previous year. But the main blow came not from the area, but from the yield: due to the lack of rainfall, it fell to 2.0 tons per hectare, which is 10.6% lower than last season. The seed harvest is expected to be at 10.1 million tons — 10.6% less than last year and 13.5% below the average for the last five years.”

Ukraine continues to hold leading positions among sunflower oil supplying countries for the European Union, providing over 92% of the EU’s imports of this product. Moldova and Serbia remain significantly behind in export volumes — their combined share does not exceed 7%. The main export destinations traditionally remain countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. By the end of 2025, sunflower oil accounted for the largest volume of foreign exchange earnings among all agricultural products in the country.

Regarding the domestic market, sunflower prices remain at the season’s highest level — from 29,500 to 30,800 UAH per ton delivered to processing enterprises. Analysts do not forecast significant price changes until the end of the season, unless unforeseen circumstances arise on maritime routes or sharp fluctuations in demand occur in Asian countries.