Tensions Between the US and EU Affect Ukrainian Corn Exports

Increased tension in relations between the US and the EU has raised concerns in the global agricultural market, particularly impacting the prospects for Ukrainian corn. The current political conflict between Washington and Brussels forces Ukrainian farmers to assess potential losses and possible advantages from changes in the market.

This is reported by AgroReview

The US is considering the introduction of a 10% tariff on imports of goods from Europe, while the EU is preparing corresponding economic measures in response, which could amount to billions of dollars. Such policies are already affecting grain trade, particularly corn exports.

Spain as a Key Market and Changes in Competition

Spain remains one of the main buyers of feed grain, where Ukrainian and American corn traditionally compete for market share. In recent seasons, American producers have actively supplied corn to Spain, creating significant competition for Ukraine. If the EU does impose tariffs on American grain, it may lose its price advantage, becoming less attractive to European processors.

However, experts emphasize that supplies from the US to Spain remain situational and are not a long-term practice. Spanish traders typically purchase grain in small batches of one or two ships each week, which provides them with flexibility in changing suppliers. If American corn becomes too expensive or unavailable, Spain may turn its attention not only to Ukraine but also to Brazil, which is also a major grain exporter.

Will Trade Disputes Really Help Ukraine?

According to analysts, Ukraine has a chance to receive some support for corn prices if American grain falls under sanction restrictions. Theoretically, this would contribute to an increase in purchase prices at domestic ports, which would be beneficial for local farmers.

“It seems like this is our star moment, when we can push out a competitor and dictate our terms. However, analysts from Barva Invest advise against rushing to pop the champagne, as the situation is much trickier. Supplies from the US to Spain have never been a stable tradition; rather, they are a situational flow that has only emerged in recent seasons.”

At the same time, experts warn that currently all discussions about tariffs remain at the level of political statements, while the market is already reacting with increased volatility. Despite the possible partial absence of the US in the EU market, Ukraine needs to consider its own logistical capabilities and yields. An increase in export prices (FOB and CPT) is only possible if Ukraine can offer better conditions than its competitors, including Brazil.

Thus, the situation surrounding the political disputes of major players directly affects the prospects for Ukrainian corn; however, the final outcome will depend on many factors, including global prices, harvests, and logistics costs.