The EU Could Become the Largest Wheat Exporter After Ukraine’s Accession
The European Union has a strong chance of leading the global wheat export market as early as 2027 following Ukraine’s anticipated accession to the EU. According to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ukraine plans to export about 14 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 season, while EU countries are expected to export an additional 32.5 million tons. Together, these volumes exceed the projected wheat export from the Russian Federation, which stands at 44 million tons.
This is reported by AgroReview
The Impact of Eurointegration on Ukraine’s Agricultural Sector
Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28, 2022, and official accession negotiations began in June 2024. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the country is aiming for EU membership by 2027. This move could fundamentally change the balance of power in the global grain market, strengthening the position of united Europe.
Ukrainian agrarians support the course towards eurointegration, but they warn of significant challenges related to adapting to EU requirements. As noted by the head of the All-Ukrainian Agricultural Council, Andriy Dyкун, the implementation of European standards in crop and livestock production by 2028 will be a serious test for an industry that has already suffered significant losses due to the war.
“The implementation of EU requirements in crop and livestock production by 2028 will be a serious challenge for an industry that has already faced significant losses due to the war.”
Financial Risks and Challenges for Farmers
According to the World Bank, the Ukrainian agricultural sector has already lost over $11.2 billion due to the war. Additionally, farmers may lose up to $3 billion annually due to the ban on about 100 active substances in plant protection products that are currently permitted in Ukraine but banned in the EU. At the same time, farmers in EU countries receive substantial subsidies in exchange for complying with strict environmental and food standards.
Ukrainian agrarians also highlight the risks of losing markets in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, which provide a significant share of foreign currency earnings and are crucial for global food security. The All-Ukrainian Agricultural Council proposes a flexible approach to implementing European requirements and providing financial support to farmers during the transition period.
Experts emphasize that the progress of negotiations on EU accession will be decisive, especially regarding Ukraine’s access to European subsidies. This factor could be key to maintaining the competitiveness of the Ukrainian agricultural sector and transforming the European Union into a global leader in wheat exports.