There is no shortage of grain elevators in Ukraine despite rising stocks in the 2025/26 marketing year
In Ukraine, despite a possible increase in ending grain stocks in the 2025/26 marketing year, there is no shortage of farmer elevator capacity. This conclusion is included in the FAS USDA report released in early February 2026.
This is reported by AgroReview
Impact of Russian Attacks on Grain Exports and Stocks
The intensification of attacks by the Russian Federation on Ukrainian ports, energy infrastructure, and internal logistics is slowing down export shipments and may lead to an increase in the volume of ending grain stocks in the country. However, as noted by FAS, due to the sufficient number of domestic elevators, the slowdown in exports will not result in spoilage or disposal of grain due to inadequate storage conditions.
“At the same time, FAS notes that there is no shortage of domestic farmer elevators in Ukraine, so a possible slowdown in exports will not necessarily lead to spoilage or disposal of grain due to inadequate storage conditions.”
In the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year (July–December 2025), the pace of Ukrainian grain exports was 30% lower than in the same period of the previous season. Significant impacts came from Russia’s attacks on the energy system, railway and port infrastructure, as well as on vessels in ports and the Black Sea.
Dynamics of Exports of Major Grain Crops
From July to December 2025, Ukraine managed to ship only about half of the projected export potential of wheat for the 2025/26 marketing year. At the beginning of the season, farmers primarily sold feed wheat, while food wheat was kept in storage in anticipation of better prices in the second half of the year. It is likely that the majority of food wheat will be sold during this period, as was the case last season.
The volume of barley exports in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year amounted to 1.3 million tons, which is 34% less compared to the same period last year. Supplies decreased in all major directions, including to the EU, China, and Libya. The increase in imports from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Turkey, which likely acted as a transit country, did not compensate for the overall reduction in exports.
From October to December 2025, corn supplies amounted to 5.0 million tons, which is 29% less than in the corresponding period of the previous marketing year. In particular, exports to EU countries decreased by 41%, and to Turkey by 18%. During this time, farmers preferred to sell corn that was not suitable for long-term storage due to quality issues.
According to current production estimates and export figures, FAS USDA forecasts the following volumes of Ukrainian grain exports in the 2025/26 marketing year:
- barley — 3.1 million tons
- wheat — 14.3 million tons
- corn — 23.2 million tons
- rye — 10 thousand tons
These forecasts are based on the premise of stable operations of Black Sea ports and the efficiency of railway logistics for transporting grain from domestic elevators to port terminals.