Ukraine Forecasts 20% Increase in Bread Prices by the End of 2025
The All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers expects that by the end of 2025, bread prices in Ukraine could rise by 20%. This was reported by the head of the association, Oleksandr Taranenko, who emphasized that the current economic conditions are conducive to the increase in bread product prices.
This is reported by AgroReview
Reasons for the Increase in Bread Prices
According to Taranenko, the current wholesale price of a kilogram of bread from the bakery exceeds 40 hryvnias. At the same time, supermarkets employ various marketing strategies, resulting in their markup on bread reaching up to 30%, although by law it should not exceed 10%.
The expert notes that there is a significant “shadow” sector in the Ukrainian market, which means that official statistics do not reflect the true state of affairs. According to his estimates, the average Ukrainian consumes 150–200 grams of bread per day, which is about 5 kilograms per month. Given this, the monthly expenditure on bread amounts to 200–210 hryvnias. If the price increases by 20%, this amount will rise by 40 hryvnias, which, according to Taranenko, is significant for pensioners and socially vulnerable groups, but not critical for most families.
“Let’s not consider domestic statistics – they do not reflect reality due to the presence of the “shadow” market and other nuances. Objectively, a Ukrainian currently consumes 150-200 grams of bread daily, which amounts to about 5 kilograms per month. Therefore, a citizen of Ukraine spends 200-210 hryvnias on bread each month. If the price increases by 20% over the year, a person will spend 40 hryvnias more on bread each month. For our pensioners and other low-income segments of the population, 40 hryvnias is a significant amount. However, to say that an additional 40 hryvnias a month will undermine the budget of a Ukrainian family would probably be an exaggeration,” emphasized the expert.
Impact of Production Costs and Salaries
Taranenko explained that the increase in bread prices is due to rising costs of all key components of the product: flour, yeast, fats, and sugar. Additionally, increases in electricity tariffs, transportation costs, and the government’s requirement for companies that have the right to reserve personnel to ensure a minimum salary of no less than 20,000 hryvnias also play a role. After taxes, workers receive about 16,000 hryvnias, which, according to the specialist, is a low income level for this industry.
The expert noted that even a 20–30% increase in salaries significantly raises producers’ costs, who are unable to substantially increase their revenues. The average profitability of bakery enterprises is currently slightly above zero, and for some types of products, it is even below zero.
According to the State Statistics Service, there are over 3,000 registered bread producers in Ukraine. However, according to Taranenko’s estimates, about two thousand enterprises are actually operational. He categorically denied any assumptions about a possible collusion among producers to raise prices, emphasizing that such claims are unfounded.