In Ukraine, soybean oil prices have risen by 5.6% due to discussions on mandates

Last week, futures for soybean oil and RIN credit prices in the U.S. experienced a sharp increase amid discussions about raising biofuel blending mandates. This discussion was initiated by representatives from the oil and biofuel industries who are eager to present their proposals to the Trump administration. However, this price increase is primarily speculative, as raising the mandates could lead to fuel prices rising by 10-15%, while Trump promised to lower them before the elections.

This is reported by AgroReview

May soybean oil futures on the Chicago exchange rose by another 5.6%, reaching $1046/ton, which is an increase of 12.3% over the week. This rise occurred amid mere talks of increasing biodiesel production volumes in 2026, although traders are not yet factoring in the potential impact of the start of a trade war by the U.S. against all countries from April 2.

Meanwhile, May soybean futures increased by only 1.9%, to $380/ton, confirming the speculative nature of the rise in oil prices. The volume of soybean processing in the U.S. decreased by 11% in February compared to January, totaling 5.143 million tons, which is 2.3% lower than in February 2024. Conversely, soybean oil stocks have increased to 873 thousand tons.

Discussion on biofuel blending mandates

At a meeting on Tuesday, representatives from the U.S. oil and biofuel coalition and the Environmental Protection Agency discussed the need to raise biofuel blending mandates with diesel fuel. The Agency plans to introduce new quotas, which will be the first step in supporting the biofuel industry that Trump promised.

Biofuel producers, including Big Oil and the Farm Belt, are currently collaborating to reach a consensus at the request of the White House to avoid issues that arose during Trump’s first term. According to Reuters, the coalition led by the American Petroleum Institute is advocating for a biofuel mandate of 5.5-5.75 billion gallons, significantly exceeding the current figure of 3.35 billion gallons.

Doubts about increasing quotas

Some coalition members, represented by small oil refining companies, express doubts about increasing the biofuel content in fuel, believing it could lead to job losses and rising fuel prices. Truck stop operators and fuel retailers also question the necessity of raising biodiesel quotas without restoring the blending tax credit, which expired last December.

“This credit helped lower prices for consumers, and its replacement – the tax credit for producers (45Z) has proven ineffective,” representatives state.

The elimination of the credit could not only complicate the financial situation for Americans but also create political problems for the administration.

The further development of the grain and oil market in Ukraine and the Black Sea region will be discussed at the 23rd International Conference, which will take place on April 24 in Kyiv.

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