Ukraine’s losses from the halt of sunflower oil exports in 2026 will exceed 600 million dollars
Ukraine may lose over 600 million dollars in foreign currency revenue in 2026 due to the halt of sunflower oil exports. This is attributed to massive shelling of infrastructure by Russian occupiers, which has significantly impacted the operations of ports and industrial enterprises in the sector.
This is reported by AgroReview
Reduction in exports and economic losses
According to Alexander Zakharchuk, head of the investment and material support department at the Institute of Agrarian Economics, losses from the halt of exports could reach 600-650 million dollars in 2026 alone. For comparison, in 2020, the volume of sunflower oil exports from Ukraine was 6.1 million tons, in 2021 it was 4.6 million tons, and in the first 10 months of 2025, exports fell to 3.5 million tons.
“According to forecast estimates by scientists at the Institute of Agrarian Economics, for the 2025-2026 marketing year, that is from September 1, 2025, to September 1, 2026, sunflower oil exports will remain at the level of 3.2-3.5 million tons, even with partial restoration of the ‘grain corridor’ through the Bosporus, as port infrastructure capacities have been lost by almost half,” the expert notes.
Zakharchuk emphasized that Russia’s aggression has led to the destruction of traditional logistical routes for Ukrainian farmers and a significant increase in their operational costs.
Halting maritime exports and consequences for the domestic market
Leading researcher in the agricultural market and international integration department of the same institute, Bohdan Dukhnitsky, notes that due to shelling, maritime exports of oil have virtually ceased. As of mid-January 2026, shipments through sea ports were effectively halted.
The prolonged maintenance of such a situation creates a number of risks: a decrease in export revenue, pressure on the foreign trade balance and the exchange rate of the hryvnia, as well as disruptions in the domestic market. In particular, in the case of limited exports, the procurement of sunflower seeds may decrease, and the structure of plantings may change in future seasons.
The General Director of the “UkrOliaprom” association, Stepan Kapshuk, stated that Russia is deliberately trying to destroy sunflower oil production in Ukraine by attacking industrial enterprises and port infrastructure. According to him, this sector provides over 15% of foreign currency revenue, which directly affects the hryvnia’s exchange rate against the dollar.
As of mid-January, every third Ukrainian oil production plant was forced to halt operations due to Russian shelling. This has led to an increase in global procurement prices for sunflower oil, which Russian producers have taken advantage of.