Ukrainian Grain and Corn Exports Decline Amid Falling Global Prices

In recent months of the season, the Ukrainian grain market has faced a decrease in export demand for wheat and corn, accompanied by a trend of falling global prices. This is occurring against the backdrop of declining prices for feed grains and meal in South American countries, which significantly impacts the pricing of Ukrainian agricultural products.

This is reported by AgroReview

Decline in Export Volumes and Grain Prices

In April and May, the pace of exports from Ukraine noticeably decreased due to reduced product stocks and falling export prices. In the first 26 days of May, corn exports amounted to 1.69 million tons, which is half of the volume for the same period last year (3.34 million tons). For the entire 2024/25 season, 20.2 million tons of corn have been exported, while last season this figure reached 26.2 million tons. Wheat exports also halved — from 1.45 million tons to 0.73 million tons over the 26 days of May, with total seasonal deliveries amounting to 14.64 million tons (17.24 million tons last year).

Purchase prices for grains at Ukrainian ports are gradually decreasing as traders are already preparing to start purchasing the new harvest. The declared prices for new crop food wheat are around $210/ton, and for feed wheat — $200/ton. Meanwhile, for old crop grain, traders are offering $225–230/ton for food wheat and $212–215/ton for feed wheat. Export prices for corn are holding in the range of $225–228/ton with delivery to the port, as exporters are trying to form the necessary volumes for external supplies. At the same time, prices for October contracts for the new corn harvest have fallen to the level of $195–200/ton, due to favorable weather in the main producing countries — the USA, Ukraine, and EU countries.

Global Trends and Harvest Forecasts

A record soybean harvest in Brazil, as well as in South America overall, is increasing pressure on global prices for soybeans, soybean meal, and feed crops. The completion of soybean harvesting and the successful sowing of saffron corn in Brazil have created favorable conditions for a good second corn harvest. Harvesting has already begun — currently, 0.9% of the area has been harvested. International buyers are already signing the first contracts for July deliveries.

In Argentina, heavy rainfall has led to delays in soybean harvesting, which is currently completed on 77% of the area, affecting soybean meal exports. However, dry and warm weather expected this week will allow farmers to accelerate soybean and corn harvesting, as well as speed up the sowing of winter wheat on moist soils.

“Given the favorable weather and high soil moisture, experts from the Rosario Grain Exchange predict an increase in wheat sowing area in the country in the 2025/26 marketing year to 7.2 million hectares and the second-largest harvest at 21.2 million tons (18.5 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year).”