Ukrainian Harvest 2025 is Growing, but Export is Complicated by Logistical Issues
The Ukrainian Grain Association has provided a new forecast: in 2025, the harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine could reach 81.4 million tons. This is 2.4 million tons more than in 2024, which could be positive news for the domestic agricultural sector and the economy.
This is reported by AgroReview
However, experts warn that the increase in harvest may lead to serious problems, as the country’s export capabilities remain limited. Exporting grain abroad is becoming increasingly difficult due to a number of logistical complications.
Challenges for Transport Infrastructure
According to the most optimistic estimates, exports in the 2025 season could reach 49 million tons, exceeding the previous year’s figure (46.7 million tons). However, achieving such volumes will only be possible if acute logistical problems are resolved.
Constant attacks by Russia on critical infrastructure have caused significant damage to energy facilities, railways, and seaports. All key transport hubs are operating at overload, and rail transport does not provide enough wagons for grain transportation. Ports regularly require repairs after shelling, and road transport cannot fully compensate for the railway’s capacity shortfall.
“Russian strikes on critical infrastructure have hit precisely at pain points. Energy, railways, and seaports are operating at their limits. Transport hubs are simply physically unable to handle the load. Damaged infrastructure, constant power outages, and the threat of new attacks create a situation of uncertainty.”
Consequences for the Economy and Farmers
Farmers find themselves in a difficult situation: despite a good harvest and significant investments in sowing, selling products at a profitable price is becoming increasingly challenging. When supply exceeds logistical capabilities, grain prices fall, leading to losses for both individual farms and the national economy as a whole.
Export of agricultural products accounts for up to 60% of Ukraine’s foreign currency earnings. If grain remains in warehouses, it will negatively impact the country’s balance of payments. The Ukrainian Grain Association expresses concern about forecasts for the next season: in 2026, a harvest of 84.5 million tons is expected, and the export potential could reach 50 million tons. However, the issue of transportation remains unresolved.
To overcome the crisis, systemic investments are needed to restore and modernize infrastructure, as well as to expand port and railway capacities. However, implementing such changes requires significant time and financial resources, while agricultural producers need to sell grain right now.
As an alternative, the use of Danube ports and routes through neighboring countries is being considered, but these routes have limited capacity and cannot fully replace large-capacity seaports.
Ukrainian farmers demonstrate resilience and the ability to work under challenging conditions, ensuring a high harvest despite all difficulties. The main task at this moment is to find effective ways to sell products to avoid losses.