Urea Prices in Ukraine Rise: Limited Supply and New Market Trends
This is reported by AgroReview
In the Ukrainian market, urea prices continue to rise sharply. As of March 11, imported urea on FCA port terms has increased to 40–42 thousand UAH per ton, which is 10.1 thousand UAH more compared to last week.
Despite the fact that the main corn planting campaign has not yet begun, demand for urea remains consistently high. It is actively purchased by farmers, traders, and CAS producers, which supports high price levels.
Shortage and Limited Supply
Analysts note that expectations of a urea shortage arose even before the escalation of the situation in the Middle East. In Ukraine, there has been only one producer of this fertilizer, Cherkasy Azot, operating for over four years. In 2025, the enterprise produced 232 thousand tons of urea, which is 42% less than the previous year. The majority of fertilizers were produced in the first half of the year, so transitional stocks remain minimal.
In conditions of limited supply, OSTCHEM is currently not selling urea on the open market and is not disclosing prices. This further exacerbates the shortage in the domestic market.
Impact of Imports and the Global Market Situation
Ukraine’s high dependence on imported urea is a key factor for the market. In winter, traders actively imported fertilizer from Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Central Asian countries. However, with the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, the global situation changed: disruptions in shipments from Gulf countries, which are major exporters, led to a significant increase in global prices and intensified competition for available volumes in the Black Sea and Mediterranean regions.
Ukrainian importers are increasingly finding it difficult to locate available batches of fertilizers: the Azerbaijani plant has been idle for over a month, North African producers have already sold their products through the end of March, and supplies from Central Asia are limited.
Against the backdrop of expected further price increases, some Ukrainian importers have already suspended urea sales. At the same time, the market ratio of fertilizer prices to agricultural products has noticeably worsened.
“Currently, purchasing 1 ton of urea requires spending 56% more corn and 57% more wheat than a year ago. Moreover, after the price spike this week, this indicator has exceeded the average figures of recent years. The only worse year was 2022,” say Barva Invest.
Experts predict that urea prices may continue to rise due to limited supply, high gas costs, active demand, and increasing prices for imported fertilizers. An additional factor putting pressure on prices remains the potential further weakening of the hryvnia.
At the same time, a possible decrease in the frenzy in gas and fertilizer markets could lead to a slight price correction; however, a return to the levels of late February is unlikely in the near future.