USDA Lowers Export Forecast for Ukrainian Corn for the 2025/26 Marketing Year

Analysts from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) have adjusted their export forecast for Ukrainian corn in the 2025/26 marketing year to 22 million tons, which is 1 million tons lower than the previous estimate. The corn harvest forecast in Ukraine remains unchanged at 29 million tons, while ending stocks, on the contrary, have increased to 1.65 million tons (+0.8 million tons).

This is reported by AgroReview

Global Corn Market: Key Trends and Forecasts

According to updated USDA data, global corn production for the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to be 1,295.91 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast (-0.1 million tons). The estimate for global exports has risen to 206.55 million tons (+1.44 million tons), however, the forecast for ending stocks has decreased to 288.98 million tons (-1.93 million tons).

Trends Among Major Producing and Exporting Countries

According to the forecast, corn production in the United States remains unchanged at 432.34 million tons. The export forecast for American corn has increased to 83.82 million tons (+2.54 million tons), while ending stocks have decreased from 56.56 million tons to 54.02 million tons.

Forecast for Key Corn Exporters in the 2025/26 Marketing Year:

• Argentina: harvest — 53 million tons, export — 37 million tons, stocks — 5.89 million tons (unchanged).
• Brazil: harvest — 131 million tons, export — 43 million tons, stocks — 3.68 million tons (unchanged).
• Russia: harvest — 14.5 million tons, export — 3 million tons, stocks — 1.06 million tons (unchanged).
• South Africa: harvest — 16.5 million tons, export — 2 million tons, stocks — 2.04 million tons (+0.03 million tons).

“USDA forecasts global corn production for the 2025/26 marketing year at 1,295.91 million tons (-0.1 million tons). This is stated in the department’s February report.”

Regarding China, the corn harvest is estimated at 301.24 million tons. The import of this crop will amount to 8 million tons, while ending stocks are forecasted to be at 180.15 million tons.