USDA Publishes Unchanged Wheat Production Forecast for Ukraine in 2025/26 Marketing Year

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has kept its forecasts for wheat production in Ukraine for the 2025/26 marketing year unchanged in its February report. The estimate stands at 23 million tons, with the projected export volume at 14 million tons, and ending stocks estimated at 1.63 million tons, which is 0.3 million tons lower than previous expectations.

This is reported by AgroReview

Global Wheat Balance: Key Indicators

The USDA slightly lowered its forecast for global wheat production in the 2025/26 marketing year to 841.8 million tons (down 0.37 million tons from the previous report). At the same time, global wheat exports are estimated at 221.96 million tons, which is 2.2 million tons higher than the previous estimate. Global ending stocks have been reduced to 277.51 million tons (down 0.74 million tons).

For the United States, the wheat production forecast is set at 54.01 million tons. The export volume also remains unchanged at 24.49 million tons, while ending stocks at the end of the season are expected to rise to 25.34 million tons (up 0.13 million tons).

Major Exporters: Country Data

USDA analysts have updated estimates for leading wheat exporters in the 2025/26 marketing year. The data by country is as follows:

• Argentina: production — 27.8 million tons (+0.3), export — 18 million tons (+2), ending stocks — 4.31 million tons (+1.7).
• Australia: production — 37 million tons (unchanged), export — 27 million tons (unchanged), ending stocks — 5.12 million tons (+0.03).
• Canada: production — 39.96 million tons (unchanged), export — 29 million tons (+1), ending stocks — 5.89 million tons (–0.43).
• EU: production — 144 million tons (unchanged), export — 31.5 million tons (–1), ending stocks — 15.66 million tons (+1.45).
• Russia: production — 89.5 million tons (unchanged), export — 44 million tons (unchanged), ending stocks — 14.69 million tons (unchanged).

The wheat production forecast for Ukraine remains unchanged at 23 million tons, with exports at 14 million tons and ending stocks at 1.63 million tons (–0.3 million tons).

Regarding China, USDA experts expect wheat production in the 2025/26 marketing year to be at 140.07 million tons. The import forecast is 6 million tons, while ending stocks are estimated at 124.85 million tons.