USDA Raises Global Wheat Production and Export Forecast for 2025/26 Marketing Year

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its estimates for global wheat production and exports for the 2025/26 marketing year. According to the December report, global wheat production is expected to reach 837.81 million tons, which is 8.92 million tons higher than the previous forecast.

This is reported by AgroReview

Global Wheat Exports and Stocks: Growth Dynamics

Global wheat exports, according to the USDA, may reach 218.71 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, which is 1.5 million tons more than the previous estimate. Ending stocks of wheat worldwide have also increased and will amount to 274.87 million tons, which is 3.44 million tons more than previously expected.

Indicators for Major Exporters and Ukraine

For Ukraine, the wheat harvest forecast remains at 23 million tons. Ukrainian wheat exports are expected to be 14.5 million tons, which is 0.5 million tons less than the previous forecast. Ending grain stocks are estimated at 1.93 million tons.

The forecast for the U.S. wheat harvest remains unchanged at 54.01 million tons, with exports also unchanged at 24.49 million tons, and ending stocks will be 24.52 million tons.

“The wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine remains unchanged at 23 million tons, exports will be at 14.5 million tons (-0.5 million tons), and ending stocks will be 1.93 million tons.”

USDA analysts also provided updated data on major wheat exporters for the 2025/26 marketing year:

• Argentina: Harvest — 24 million tons (+2), exports — 14.5 million tons (+0.5), stocks — 4.52 million tons (+0.5)
• Australia: Harvest — 37 million tons (+1), exports — 27 million tons (+1), stocks — 5.09 million tons (-0.5)
• Canada: Harvest — 39.96 million tons (+2.96), exports — 28 million tons (+1), stocks — 6.32 million tons (+0.96)
• European Union: Harvest — 144 million tons (+1.7), exports — 33 million tons (unchanged), stocks — 13.71 million tons (+0.7)
• Russia: Harvest — 87.5 million tons (+1), exports — 44 million tons (unchanged), stocks — 13.19 million tons (+1)

Regarding China, wheat production is forecasted at 140 million tons, imports at 6 million tons, and ending stocks at 124.78 million tons.