USDA Raises Wheat Production and Stock Forecasts for Ukraine in 2025/26 Marketing Year

This is reported by AgroReview

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has adjusted its forecasts for global wheat production and balance in its March report for the 2025/26 marketing year. According to the new data, global wheat production is expected to reach 842.12 million tons, which is an increase of 0.32 million tons compared to the previous estimate.

Changes in Forecasts for Ukraine and Global Markets

The wheat harvest estimate for Ukraine has been increased by 1 million tons to 24 million tons. Meanwhile, Ukrainian wheat exports are forecasted at 13.5 million tons, which is 0.5 million tons less than the previous estimate. Ending stocks of wheat in Ukraine, according to USDA, will amount to 3.13 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons more than the previous forecast.

Global wheat exports will total 222.16 million tons (+0.2 million tons), while ending global stocks have been reduced to 276.96 million tons (-0.55 million tons).

“Global supply has increased by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million tons, mainly due to increased production in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, which partially offsets the decline in production in Australia,” the report states.

Major Wheat Exporters: Updated Data

For the major wheat-exporting countries, the USDA has released the following data for the 2025/26 marketing year:

• Argentina: harvest – 27.8 million tons, export – 19.5 million tons (+1.5), stocks – 3.31 million tons (-1)
• Australia: harvest – 36 million tons (-1), export – 27 million tons, stocks – 4.12 million tons (-1)
• Canada: harvest – 39.96 million tons, export – 29 million tons, stocks – 5.89 million tons
• European Union: harvest – 144 million tons, export – 30.5 million tons (-1.5), stocks – 15.67 million tons (+0.01)
• Russia: harvest – 89.5 million tons, export – 43.5 million tons (-0.5), stocks – 15.19 million tons (+0.5)

Regarding the United States, the wheat harvest forecast remains at 54.01 million tons, exports at 24.49 million tons, and ending stocks at 25.34 million tons.

Wheat production in China, according to USDA estimates, will be 140.07 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year. Imports are forecasted at 6 million tons, and ending stocks at 124.85 million tons.