Weather Conditions Affect Wheat Harvest in Morocco in 2025
In 2025, the wheat harvest in Morocco is expected to be below the average of the last ten years, despite heavy rains that fell in March. The main reasons for this are the hot and dry weather at the beginning of the growing season, as well as a reduction in planted areas, as indicated by the report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
This is reported by AgroReview
For the 2025/26 marketing year, which will begin in June, the production of common wheat is forecasted at 1.7 million tons, durum wheat at 1.1 million tons, and barley at 700 thousand tons. The total wheat production will amount to 2.8 million tons, exceeding the 2.46 million tons of the previous season, but significantly lower than the estimated 4.15 million tons in 2023-24.
Adverse Conditions Affect Barley Production
Barley is also facing difficulties: although production in 2025-26 will increase compared to 660 thousand tons in the previous season, it will not reach the estimated 1.35 million tons harvested in 2023-24. “The 2025 season has encountered serious challenges, primarily due to a prolonged drought period,” noted FAS. “A significant lack of rainfall at the beginning of the season has led to considerable delays, especially in the southern regions, where planting was only completed in the first week of January 2025.”
Moreover, crops that were sown earlier in the season appear weaker, caused by prolonged dry conditions from December to February. To meet the projected demand for wheat of 10 million tons and maintain stocks, Morocco’s imports in 2025-26 may reach 7.3 million tons, which is 42% above the decade average.
Wheat Price Control in Morocco
Prices for wheat, flour, and bread in Morocco remain politically sensitive and are subject to strict control. The government supports the import of common wheat at a fixed premium to keep bread prices low—a vital staple in most meals. From June 1 to December 30, 2024, Morocco imported 960,137 tons of wheat from Russia, which is 278% more than during the same period in 2023. France remains the main supplier in the 2024/25 marketing year with a share of 43%, followed by Canada and Germany with 14% each, and Russia with 8%.
Additionally, barley consumption, which is primarily used as animal feed, is also expected to decline due to a significant reduction in livestock numbers in Morocco. Total demand is projected at 1.6 million tons, down from 2.2 million tons in 2024-25. Ending stocks of wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year are estimated at 1.02 million tons, the same level as in 2024-25, while barley stocks will be 108 thousand tons, also at the level of the previous season.
“Although official statistics on wheat and barley stocks are not publicly available, industry contacts reported that as of March 1, 2025, Morocco has wheat stocks sufficient for two and a half months of consumption, and importers are actively signing contracts to build up stocks,” noted FAS.