What Changes Are Expected in the Global Vegetable Oil Price Market in December 2025
The global vegetable oil market remains influenced by uncertainty regarding future price trends. Despite the anticipated decrease in demand, traders hope for an increase in quotations due to a reduction in sunflower oil supply.
This is reported by AgroReview
Impact of Global Events and Prices of Major Vegetable Oils
Recent geopolitical events, including drone attacks in the Black Sea on sanctioned tankers carrying Russian oil and sunflower oil, have led to speculative price increases for oil and vegetable oils. According to the Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, the tanker Midvolga 2, which was transporting sunflower oil from Russia to Georgia, was attacked 130 km off the Turkish coast, but did not request assistance and continued its journey to Sinop with operational engines. No threats to the crew were reported.
“The tanker Midvolga 2, heading from Russia to Georgia with sunflower oil, was attacked 130 km off the Turkish coast. It did not request assistance and continued its journey towards Sinop with operational engines. There was no threat to the life and health of the 13 crew members.”
December futures prices for palm oil on the Bursa Malaysia exchange rose by 4.2% to 4159 ringgits per ton ($1007/ton), recovering from the previous week’s decline. The market is awaiting official data on stocks in Malaysia, but traders predict an increase. However, a traditional production cut may occur in December, and a potential increase in the palm oil content in fuel in Indonesia from 40% to 50% could reduce exports.
Meanwhile, February futures for Brent crude oil traded at $62.5 per barrel, showing a 3% decrease over the month amid expectations of US negotiations with Russia to end the war.
Price Dynamics of Soybean, Sunflower, and Rapeseed Oils
December soybean oil futures in Chicago increased by 4% over the week and are currently trading at $1160/ton, which is 4.8% higher than a month ago. In Brazil, the price of soybean oil rose by $20/ton, ranging from $1130 to $1140/ton FOB. In China, due to an increase in supply, the price increase was only $10/ton ($1170 to $1175/ton Daylian).
Sunflower oil delivered to India increased by $10–15/ton over the week, costing $1315–1325/ton CIF Mumbai. Russian sunflower oil for December delivery rose by $5–10/ton to $1210–1215/ton FOB. In Ukraine, demand prices for sunflower oil delivered to ports in December remain at $1230/ton, while the number of offers from producers is increasing.
Rapeseed oil in the EU traded at $1260–1265/ton FOB Netherlands, amid an increase in the forecast for rapeseed harvest in Australia.
Forecasts from the European Commission indicate that in the 2025/26 season, EU countries will reduce imports of vegetable oils by 19% to 5.6 million tons compared to last year. In particular, palm oil imports will decrease by 26% (2.5 million tons), sunflower oil by 10% (2.3 million tons), soybean oil by 28% (0.5 million tons), while rapeseed oil imports will remain stable (0.3 million tons).
In India, according to Patanjali Foods Ltd., importers have purchased over 150,000 tons of soybean oil from South America for delivery from April to June 2026. This was due to a discount of $20–30/ton on soybean oil compared to palm oil, although soybean oil is usually $70–100/ton more expensive. This indicates sellers’ readiness to lower prices ahead of the expected large harvest in South America in the new season.