Wheat prices stabilize while the sunflower market remains without forwards
After a month of continuous decline in grain prices, last week marked a stabilization in the value of wheat in Ukraine. For agricultural producers, this has been a signal to reassess their sales strategy: some are considering the possibility of selling given the current stability, while others prefer to wait for changes in the market. However, the further choice depends on the crop.
This is reported by AgroReview
Situation in the wheat market
Over the past week, prices for wheat with 11.5% protein in the ports of Odesa have remained at $216–218 per ton. Despite the stabilization after falling to a 9-month low, the price remains below the breakeven point for some farms.
“Stable” does not mean “good” when the price is held below the breakeven point for some farms
Fundamental factors do not indicate a quick recovery: a large wheat harvest is expected worldwide in 2026, Russia maintains active competition in the MENA markets, and demand from Egypt and Turkey remains weak. Therefore, selling wheat under current forward contracts at $216–218/ton allows for locking in an acceptable price without the risk of further decline, likely until June.
Sunflower market: uncertainty and lack of forwards
Unlike wheat, the sunflower market is in a state of uncertainty. Farmers are refraining from entering into forward contracts due to weather risks and the lack of attractive prices. On the spot market, sunflower seeds are trading in the range of 23,500–24,000 UAH/ton — significantly lower than the April peak of 32,000 UAH/ton, but already close to the breakeven point for most farms. Processing enterprises remain active, and the deficit of sunflower oil in June is still ahead, which may affect future price dynamics. Farmers are choosing a wait-and-see strategy, which is a logical decision in the absence of guarantees regarding future harvests and price conditions.
Combining the situation for both crops, experts note: if farms still have stocks from the previous harvest, selling them now at a stable price is more profitable than waiting for the new harvest when supply will significantly increase. Regarding the new harvest, it is advisable to consider selling wheat under forward contracts now, while for sunflower, market conditions remain more favorable due to the likely oil deficit in the near future.