Wheat Production in the EU to Reach Record Levels, Barley at a 17-Year High

The analytical company Expana has raised its forecast for grain harvests in the European Union for the 2025/26 season. Wheat production is expected to reach a record level, while barley harvest will be the highest in the last 17 years.

This is reported by AgroReview

Updated Grain Yield Forecasts in the EU

According to Expana’s updated report, wheat production in the EU is estimated at 136.4 million tons. This is 0.3 million tons more than the previous month and 22.8 million tons higher than the results of the 2024/25 season, when the harvest was affected by adverse weather conditions.

The forecast for barley harvest has also been revised upward: it is expected to reach 56.4 million tons, which is 0.2 million tons higher than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tons more than last year.

Regarding corn, analysts have raised the forecast by 0.8 million tons to 56.5 million tons. Although the harvest results slightly exceeded expectations, this figure is still 2.5 million tons lower than last year and is the second lowest since 2007.

Harvesting Features and Export Situation

As of early October, corn harvesting is actively ongoing in most European countries, except for Poland, where crop development is lagging about a month behind.

“The contrast between the good corn harvest in the northern part of the EU and the catastrophic results in the south is likely to be even more pronounced than in the 2024/25 season,” noted Expana.

Experts predict that exports of soft wheat from the EU will significantly increase this season. At the same time, export dynamics will continue to be influenced by competition from other major exporters, including the USA, Australia, and Argentina.

It is noted that European, particularly French wheat exports were initially slow, but recently French wheat has improved its position due to increased competitiveness.