Dollar and Euro Exchange Rate Forecast for the Week: Currency Market Stability Expected

The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine next week is expected to remain within the range of 41.2–41.8 hryvnias, according to experts. At the same time, the value of the euro, compared to the dollar, will maintain its position without showing significant fluctuations.

This is reported by AgroReview

Impact of the Discount Rate and Inflation on the Market

Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at “Globus Bank,” notes that the currency market may receive positive signals in the near future due to the anticipated decrease in the discount rate on September 11 and favorable inflation data. However, as the expert emphasizes, numerous factors influence the exchange rate, including economic dynamics, GDP indicators, export rates, currency inflows, and the regularity of macro-financial assistance from international partners.

“The possible decrease in the discount rate on September 11 and favorable inflation statistics will positively impact the currency market. Of course, inflation is not the only factor affecting exchange rates. Much depends on other factors – for example, economic progress and relevant GDP indicators, the development of exports in terms of currency inflows, and the regularity of macro-financial assistance from partners,” said the expert.

Forecast of Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics

According to Lesovyi’s forecast, the currency market will remain relatively stable: the main fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate will be 41.2–41.8 UAH/USD, and the volume of currency interventions will not exceed 800 million dollars. This means that the level of dollar inflows into the market will remain controlled and will not cause sharp changes.

Regarding the euro, the banker predicts that the euro to dollar ratio will remain within the range of 1.15–1.2. Accordingly, the euro exchange rate in the domestic market is expected to be in the range of 48–49 hryvnias. Lesovyi emphasizes that the euro shows some volatility; however, its position relative to the dollar remains stable. Significant changes are not anticipated during the week, and overall demand for the euro will maintain balance.

The expert notes that there are currently no grounds for concern, as the euro and dollar are key global currencies that are not threatened by significant instability. He also adds that after the stabilization of the euro exchange rate, media hype has decreased, and demand for the currency has become more moderate.

The main indicators of the currency market from September 8 to 14, according to the specialist’s forecast, are as follows:

• currency change corridors: 41.4–41.8 UAH/USD and 48–49 UAH/euro on the interbank market; 41.2–41.6 UAH/USD and 48–49.5 UAH/euro on the cash market;
• daily exchange rate changes: up to 0.05–0.15 UAH on the interbank market, up to 0.1–0.2 UAH in banks, and up to 0.3 UAH in exchange offices;
• average difference between the interbank and cash market rates: 0.1–0.15 UAH;
• weekly exchange rate deviations are expected to be within 1–1.5% of Monday’s starting value.

Thus, next week the currency market will maintain stability, and exchange rate changes will not be significant. Critical situations, according to Lesovyi, will be promptly smoothed out by the efforts of the National Bank, which will continue to be the key regulator of Ukraine’s currency market.