Dollar and Euro Exchange Rate Forecast for 2026: Expectations for Businesses and Citizens

The hryvnia remains relatively stable thanks to the balanced policy of the National Bank, international financial support, and high foreign currency inflows from exports. In 2026, experts predict a gradual increase in the exchange rate, but sharp fluctuations are not expected. At the same time, it should be noted that the dollar and euro may become more expensive.

This is reported by AgroReview

Main Factors Influencing Currency Exchange Rates in 2026

Fintech expert and co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions, Olena Sosiadka, noted that the dynamics of the exchange rate will be influenced by a combination of internal and external factors, including the situation in Ukraine, the course of the war, and geopolitical events.

“We see that over the past few years, the dollar has remained within a range that is artificially regulated by the National Bank. This necessity is related to the war. Next year, we should expect a moderate devaluation of the hryvnia. The exchange rate will fluctuate up to 48 hryvnias per dollar,” said Olena Sosiadka.

The expert emphasized that the intensity of hostilities and the speed of receiving financial assistance from international partners will significantly impact the currency market. Among the main risks, she mentioned possible delays in international funding, a decrease in foreign currency inflows from exports, and potential logistical problems.

A positive factor for the exchange rate could be the launch of large-scale infrastructure recovery programs involving foreign investors, which will bring additional foreign currency resources to Ukraine.

Euro Dynamics: Influence of Global Trends

The euro exchange rate traditionally demonstrates greater volatility, as it depends both on the state of the Ukrainian economy and on the euro-to-dollar ratio in global markets. Olena Sosiadka pointed out that Europe is currently experiencing a period of slowed economic growth, which may weaken the euro against the dollar. According to her forecast, in 2026, the euro exchange rate may reach 52 hryvnias.

At the same time, fluctuations are possible: if the dollar depreciates in global markets, the euro has a chance to strengthen. Such changes may be particularly relevant in light of financial difficulties in the USA, including a government shutdown.

For Ukrainian citizens and businesses, the expert recommends planning finances considering the possible gradual increase in foreign currency exchange rates. She emphasized that the stability of the hryvnia directly depends on continued support from international partners and effective policies from the National Bank.

Olena Sosiadka identified asset diversification as a key tool for minimizing currency risks for the state, businesses, and every Ukrainian. She advised against keeping all funds in a single financial instrument to avoid significant losses in the event of sharp market changes.