Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast for Autumn: Stability Within 41.5-42 Hryvnias per Dollar
In the coming month and a half, experts predict stability in the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine within the range of 41.5–42 hryvnias per dollar. This forecast is based on a number of factors affecting the currency market in autumn, as well as the current policy of the National Bank of Ukraine.
This is reported by AgroReview
Seasonal Factors and Regulator Influence
The autumn period is usually accompanied by an increase in business activity and a rise in demand for imports, especially energy resources. However, as specialists note, the current mechanisms for forming the hryvnia exchange rate imply a lack of sharp changes, and seasonal fluctuations remain moderate.
Board member and director of treasury operations at Unex Bank, Hanna Zolotko, emphasized that at the beginning of autumn, the hryvnia traditionally may come under some pressure. However, thanks to the regime of managed flexibility and support from the National Bank, significant fluctuations are not expected.
“The main factors for stability are the easing of some currency restrictions, active actions by the regulator, seasonal revenues from exports, and support from international partners. Operating in a regime of managed flexibility, the NBU combines market signals with regular support operations, which mitigates seasonal fluctuations,” the expert explained.
Analysts’ Expectations for the Currency Corridor
Analysts from the investment group ICU also predict that in the coming month and a half, the dollar exchange rate will remain within the range of 41.5–42 hryvnias per dollar. According to them, this range has been stable for a considerable time, and there are no preconditions for a significant change in the near future. If seasonal fluctuations do occur, they may only amount to 30–50 kopecks, which will not exceed the specified corridor.
As of Monday, August 18, the National Bank of Ukraine set the official dollar exchange rate at 41.34 hryvnias, indicating an appreciation of the hryvnia by 11 kopecks. The official euro exchange rate for the same date is 48.31 hryvnias, meaning the hryvnia has risen by 13 kopecks against the European currency.
According to analyst Oleksiy Kozyrev, the dollar exchange rate at most currency exchange points and banks on Saturday, August 16, will be within the range: buying – from 41.10 to 41.35 hryvnias, selling – from 41.40 to 41.80 hryvnias. The euro exchange rate, he said, is expected to be in the range: buying – from 47.90 to 48.40 hryvnias, selling – from 48.45 to 48.80 hryvnias.