Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast in Ukraine: Banking Expert Shares Expectations for December
This week, an increase in the cash dollar exchange rate is expected in Ukrainian banks. Experts predict that by December 7, the American currency will range between 42.3-42.8 UAH per dollar in banks. On the evening of December 4, the average purchase rate was 42 UAH, while the sale rate was 42.42 UAH. This indicates a likely further increase in the rate for both buyers and sellers.
This is reported by AgroReview
Exchange Rate Dynamics in Banks and Exchange Offices
Taras Lesovyi, the director of the financial markets and investment activities department at Globus Bank, noted that the dollar’s value at exchange offices will also remain within the range of 42.3-42.8 UAH. On the evening of December 4, dollars were bought at exchange offices for 41.81 UAH and sold for 42.26 UAH. According to him, both in banks and exchange offices, a gradual increase in the rate is expected for both currency purchases and sales.
The difference between purchase and sale rates in banks will remain at 0.5-0.6 UAH, while in exchange offices it will be 0.6-1 UAH. Additionally, the difference in purchase rates in the cash market will be 0.2-0.3 UAH in banks and 0.3-0.5 UAH in exchange offices, while the difference in sale rates will be 0.1-0.2 UAH in banks and 0.3-0.5 UAH in exchange offices.
Impact of Seasonal Factors and the Role of the National Bank
“In the first decade of December, exchange rate fluctuations are likely to remain within the current ranges: the dollar below 43 UAH. Accordingly, moderate optimism will prevail in the currency market – despite all the uncertainty factors, the hryvnia will maintain its positions,” the banker stated.
According to the expert, the end of November and December are traditionally accompanied by an increase in payments in hryvnias – bonuses, premiums, and dividends, which raises the demand for foreign currency. At the same time, the National Bank of Ukraine actively monitors the situation in the currency market, intervening in the dynamics of the interbank exchange rate in a timely manner, thereby maintaining a balance between supply and demand.
“But the National Bank keeps the situation under control, intervening in the interbank dynamics in a timely manner. In fact, the regulator sets the pace for the entire market, maintaining equilibrium between supply and demand. Overall, despite frequent exchange rate changes, the situation will not get out of control,” Lesovyi concluded.
Experts generally predict a gradual increase in the dollar exchange rate in December; however, there are currently no grounds for a sharp decline of the hryvnia.