Dollar Exchange Rate by Year-End: Should We Expect Growth and What is the Market Situation
In the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, stability is maintained in November, and the risks of a sudden increase in the dollar exchange rate remain minimal. However, a slight increase in the value of the American currency is possible by the end of the year.
This is reported by AgroReview
Dollar Exchange Rate Dynamics in Autumn and the Impact of the NBU
In autumn 2025, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine showed a gradual increase. According to official data from the National Bank, in October, the dollar rose by 83 kopecks: from 41.14 to 41.97 hryvnias. At the beginning of November, the trend of gradual strengthening of the dollar continued, although fluctuations remained moderate — since the beginning of the month, the dollar has increased by another 9 kopecks, reaching 42.06 hryvnias.
Despite this, the current exchange rate is still lower than the peak level recorded in January, when the dollar was worth 42.28 hryvnias. Since autumn 2023, a managed flexibility exchange rate regime has been in place in Ukraine, allowing the National Bank to actively influence the situation. The regulator uses foreign currency reserves to buy or sell currency, which helps to smooth out sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate and maintain market stability.
Experts’ Forecasts for the End of 2025
Experts predict continued stability of the hryvnia in November, and significant jumps in the dollar exchange rate are not expected. According to Sergey Fursa, Deputy Director of Securities Trading at investment company Dragon Capital, the volume of foreign currency reserves remains sufficient, and the regulator fully controls the situation.
“Rumors of a sharp depreciation of the hryvnia are exaggerated; the regulator currently fully controls the situation. Significant fluctuations are not expected, as the volume of foreign currency reserves remains sufficient,” explained Sergey Fursa.
Financial expert Savchenko notes that the risk of a sharp increase in the exchange rate is currently minimal, unless extraordinary events occur on the front or large-scale energy attacks that could change market expectations. At the same time, if the conditions of cooperation with the IMF change, the government will have to adjust its currency policy.
In the expert’s opinion, stability should be expected in the next 2-3 months; however, by the end of the year, a gradual weakening of the hryvnia to a range of 43–44 hryvnias per dollar is possible.