European Commission Expects Return of Ukrainian Refugees to Begin in 2025

The European Commission forecasts that the gradual return of Ukrainian refugees to Ukraine will begin as early as 2025. According to the EC’s estimates, as of January 2025, approximately 4.3 million individuals who received temporary protection were residing in European Union countries.

This is reported by AgroReview

Trends in Refugee Numbers and Impact on the EU Labor Market

The European Commission expects that throughout 2025, the number of active registrations for temporary protection in the EU will remain largely stable, but by the end of the year, this figure is projected to decrease to 4.1 million. By the end of 2026, a further reduction to 3.8 million individuals is anticipated.

According to the EC, the increase in the workforce in EU countries from 2022 to 2024 was largely driven by the influx of Ukrainian refugees. However, this trend is likely to change in 2025 and 2026, and a significant impact on the growth of the labor force will no longer be observed.

Geopolitical Situation and Security Risks

The economic consequences of Russia’s military actions against Ukraine, as noted by the European Commission, remain highly uncertain and depend on the further course of events. The baseline scenario considered by the EC anticipates the continuation of high geopolitical tension in the region and the enforcement of sanctions against the Russian Federation until the end of 2026.

“Concerns about security have intensified as the war in Ukraine continues. Despite the efforts of the US and the EU, a robust peace agreement that provides sufficient guarantees for Ukraine and the EU remains elusive.”