Expert explains why diesel prices in Ukraine are inflated by 10 UAH per liter

The retail market for petroleum products in Ukraine is experiencing increased tension due to persistently high fuel prices, despite a stable situation in the global oil market. According to expert Yuriy Korolchuk from the Institute for Energy Research, the current price of diesel fuel in Ukraine is a result of speculative actions in the market and does not reflect the real market situation.

This is reported by AgroReview

Expert: Retail networks are making excessive profits

Yuriy Korolchuk emphasizes that the justified price of diesel fuel should be at least 10 UAH lower than the actual price recorded at gas stations in May 2026. He explains that this is due to the lack of proper state control, which allows gas station networks to earn excessive profits through unreasonable margins.

“The prices we see today at gas stations are unfortunately speculative. Currently, the cost of diesel fuel is 10 UAH higher than it should be considering the global market conditions,” the expert states.

Reasons for maintaining high prices despite stable oil

Currently, the global oil market is stable, and significant price fluctuations are not observed. However, several internal factors in the Ukrainian market are restraining the decrease in diesel fuel prices:

• Decreased demand: The reduction in consumption volumes, which has been ongoing since 2025, forces operators to compensate for losses by increasing the markup on each liter of diesel.
• Psychological pressure on the market: The introduction of symbolic discounts of a few kopecks creates an illusion of concern for customers, but in fact, networks are trying to maintain the highest price levels.
• Lack of regulatory influence: Without state intervention, operators have no motivation to lower the price immediately by 5-6 UAH per liter.

A comparison of key market factors indicates that the stable global oil price should contribute to a decrease in fuel prices, while low consumption levels keep margins high. At the same time, logistics costs and excise taxes remain predictable and do not explain the price increase of 10 UAH per liter.

Prospects for consumers and businesses

According to Korolchuk, significant reductions in the price of diesel fuel are not expected in the near future. Market operators are likely to continue attracting customers with small promotions while maintaining high profit levels. This creates additional financial pressure on the agricultural sector, which actively uses diesel during spring fieldwork, as well as on the transport industry, which is already facing economic difficulties.

Experts emphasize the need for increased control by state authorities over the formation of margins in retail networks to protect consumers from unreasonable costs.