Food Prices in Ukraine Align with Global Levels: Impact of Weather Conditions and Imports

Food prices in Ukraine have now reached global levels, and in some cases, even exceeded prices in neighboring countries. Representatives of the National Bank of Ukraine emphasize that this dynamic changes the approaches to assessing future food inflation and the impact of weather risks on the market.

This is reported by AgroReview

Expectations for Inflation and the Impact of Weather Factors

According to the Deputy Head of the NBU, Serhiy Nikolaychuk, food prices in Ukraine have practically aligned with global levels. This allows for the hope that the country can avoid a repeat of last year’s sharp spike in food inflation, despite losses from part of the harvest due to spring frosts.

“Our food prices have already approached, and for certain products even exceeded, prices in neighboring countries. Therefore, it is precisely because of this factor that we expect to avoid a repeat of last year’s significant spike in food inflation,” explained Deputy Head of the NBU, Serhiy Nikolaychuk.

Import Opportunities for Market Stability

The National Bank notes that unfavorable weather conditions could negatively impact the harvest of grains and other agricultural crops in 2025. At the same time, in the event of a shortage of certain products, Ukraine has the opportunity to compensate for the deficit through imports. This should ensure price stability and avoid a sharp rise in inflation.

NBU Head Andriy Pyshny confirmed that weather risks remain one of the main factors for inflation forecasting. However, due to market openness and the possibility of imports, product shortages will not exert significant pressure on prices.

There is a possibility to cover the relevant deficit through imports if such a necessity arises. After all, in some cases, our domestic prices have already approached global levels, and for some positions, even exceeded them,” he said.

Experts also remind that wage indexing should be conducted if the consumer price index exceeds 103%. This helps maintain the purchasing power of the population amid changes in the food market.