Forecast of Credit and Deposit Rates in Ukraine for 2026
In 2026, Ukrainian banks expect a decrease in average interest rates on loans by 1-1.5 percentage points, provided that inflation continues to decline and the economy gradually recovers. At the same time, such a scenario depends on the security situation, the intensity of hostilities, and the overall impact of the war on the country’s economic stability.
This is reported by AgroReview
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Lending
Banking experts emphasize that the potential for further rate reductions is directly linked to macroeconomic stability, the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), and the level of the discount rate. Since March 2025, the discount rate has remained at 15.5%. The size of loan rates is also influenced by the overall economic dynamics, the regularity of macro-financial assistance from partner countries, the development of state support programs, competition among banks, and business demand for accessible financial resources.
“There is potential for further rate reductions, but it is directly related to macroeconomic stability, the NBU’s monetary policy – particularly the reduction of the discount rate, which shapes the cost of money (since March 2025, the discount rate has remained at 15.5%). The overall dynamics of the economy and the rhythm of macro-financial assistance from partner countries, which should cover the gap between revenues and expenditures and help balance the state budget, may also influence the level of loan rates.”
Expectations Regarding Deposit Rates
The deposit policy of banks for individuals in 2026 will largely depend on macro-financial factors. The main ones include the level of inflation, the effectiveness of the NBU’s monetary policy, and the situation in the foreign exchange market. It is forecasted that annual inflation will decrease to 6.6%, creating favorable conditions for strengthening the positions of hryvnia deposits as a tool for saving and increasing the population’s savings.
Should current economic trends persist, a reduction in inflationary pressure may provide grounds for the NBU’s monetary committee to consider a gradual decrease in the discount rate from the current 15.5% to 14–14.5%. Corresponding adjustments are also likely for other monetary instruments. Therefore, in 2026, average rates on hryvnia deposits, depending on the term of the funds placement, may decrease by 1 percentage point – to 13–13.5% per annum.