Global Oil Prices Rise at Fastest Rate in Three Months Due to Geopolitical Tensions
Oil prices are showing the most significant increase in the last three months, rising nearly 4% over the week. This trend is the best since mid-June.
This is reported by AgroReview
Geopolitical Factors and Russia’s Decisions Impact the Market
On Friday morning, Brent crude was trading at $69.55 per barrel, which is 0.2% higher compared to the previous close. American WTI also gained 0.3%, reaching $65.20 per barrel.
The key drivers of the increase were attacks by Ukrainian drones on the energy infrastructure of the Russian Federation, NATO’s warnings about readiness to respond to airspace violations, and Moscow’s decision to partially restrict fuel exports.
“The increase was supported by triggers from drone strikes, NATO warnings, and Russia’s steps to halt key fuel exports,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a partial ban on diesel fuel exports until the end of the year, as well as an extension of the ban on gasoline exports. The reduction in refining capacities creates a risk of decreased oil production, and in some regions, there is already a shortage of certain types of fuel.
U.S. Inventories and Prospects for Supply Recovery from Kurdistan
An additional impetus for rising prices was the unexpected decrease in weekly oil inventories in the United States. At the same time, strong macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. are restraining further rallies: in the second quarter of 2025, the country’s GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year. This may make the Federal Reserve more cautious in further interest rate cuts following a recent reduction of 25 basis points.
The market is also closely monitoring the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan, which announced the resumption of oil exports within 48 hours. The prospect of bringing back around 500,000 barrels per day to the market could limit further price increases.
“Oil is once again hitting a ceiling due to seasonally weaker demand and increased OPEC+ supply in the fourth quarter,” notes Priyanka Sachdeva from Phillip Nova. She emphasizes that profit-taking and the anticipated recovery of Kurdish supplies will reignite discussions about a potential oversupply, putting pressure on prices.