Global Rice Prices Fall to Eight-Year Low Due to Record Harvests

Global rice prices, which reached record levels in 2023-2024, dropped last week to their lowest point in the past eight years. This sharp decline is attributed to an increase in global stocks and record harvests, as well as the lifting of the export ban from India.

This is reported by AgroReview

Factors Influencing the Price Decline

The price of Thai white rice 5% – a key benchmark for market calculations – fell to $372.5 per ton. This is the lowest level since 2017. The situation has drastically changed compared to the beginning of 2024, when prices reached their highest levels since 2008 due to export restrictions from India, causing panic in the market.

“It’s simple: there is too much supply. Last year, India harvested a record crop… And this year’s harvest promises to be even larger,” said Samarendu Mohanty from the Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University.

Significant production increases in Thailand and Vietnam also had a major impact on the situation, allowing for a historic peak in global rice production in the current marketing year. This was noted by analyst Oscar Chakra from Rabobank.

Changes in Global Demand and Market Outlook

Alongside the increase in supply, a decline in demand is being observed. In particular, Indonesia, one of the largest rice importers, purchased significant volumes last year and has not yet resumed active buying. The Philippines has also imposed a ban on rice imports until October to protect the domestic market during the harvest season.

Experts believe that the trend of declining prices may continue in the future. Samarendu Mohanty emphasized that there is still potential for prices to drop by about 10%, and currently, there is a lack of buyers in the market. He predicts that low rice prices may persist for at least two years unless significant global upheavals occur.