GrainCorp Forecasts Profit Decline in 2026 Due to Grain Surplus
The Australian agribusiness GrainCorp has released its financial forecast for 2026, indicating a significant decrease in the company’s profitability due to a global grain surplus and record-low export margins. The company’s financial performance is under pressure from excessive supply in the global market and falling prices, which negatively impact export revenues.
This is reported by AgroReview
Key Financial Indicators and Their Dynamics
According to GrainCorp’s official statement, the expected underlying EBITDA for the 2026 financial year will be between 200 and 240 million Australian dollars, significantly lower compared to 308 million in 2025. The net profit after tax (NPAT) is forecasted to be in the range of 20–50 million Australian dollars, whereas the previous year this figure reached 87 million dollars.
GrainCorp’s CEO Robert Spurway noted that record global grain production has led to a surplus of supply that outpaces demand growth, creating pressure on prices.
Despite a favorable harvest on Australia’s east coast, local farmers are reluctant to sell grain, anticipating an improvement in price conditions. This has resulted in a reduction in handling volumes and a decrease in export margins for GrainCorp. The company estimates that grain intake volumes will decline to 11–12 million tons (down from 13.3 million tons in 2025), while exports will drop to 5.5–6.5 million tons.
Forecast for Key Segments and Market Reaction
- Oilseed and Feed Processing: performance is expected to remain at 2025 levels.
- Agrienergy: a decline is forecasted in this sector due to uncertainty regarding U.S. biofuel policy.
Following the forecast announcement, GrainCorp’s market value on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) fell by more than 15%, reaching a four-year low. In response to the challenging situation, the company’s management announced enhanced cost optimization measures and increased operational discipline to ensure business resilience amid the cyclical downturn.