Inflation in Ukraine Reached a Year-to-Date High of 15.9% in May

In May 2025, the consumer inflation rate in Ukraine rose to 15.9% year-on-year, marking the highest level since the beginning of the year and exceeding the expectations of the National Bank.

This is reported by AgroReview

Causes of Price Increases

Experts attribute the significant rise in inflation to the increased prices of certain categories of raw food products. The most notable increases were seen in livestock products — milk, meat, and eggs, as well as certain vegetables and fruits. These changes are explained by rising production costs, a decrease in livestock numbers, and adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields.

Trends in Core and Administrative Inflation

Despite the overall price increase, core inflation slowed to 12.3% in May. The National Bank explains this by the stable energy supply situation and the impact of the increased discount rate, which helped to reduce fundamental inflationary pressure on the economy.

At the same time, the administrative component of the consumer price index, which includes alcohol, tobacco, and housing and communal services, rose to 19.8% year-on-year. The main factors behind this increase were tax adjustments for excise goods and rising production costs.

“In June, according to the NBU’s estimates, overall inflation began to decline — particularly due to a reduction in administrative influence and the base effect, as there was a one-time increase in electricity tariffs last June, which did not occur this year.”

The regulator forecasts further slowing of inflationary processes in the second half of 2025, provided that the energy system remains stable and no new shocks occur in the food market. Although inflation expectations among businesses and the population have somewhat deteriorated, they are still lower than the actual rate of price growth in the country.