International Energy Agency Forecasts Significant Oil Surplus in 2026

The global oil market in 2026 may face a significant oversupply, which, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), could reach 4 million barrels per day. This forecast is driven by the active increase in production by OPEC+ countries and other producers amid relatively low demand.

This is reported by AgroReview

Forecasts for Oil Demand and Supply

The IEA has revised its previously published forecast for 2026, which anticipated that the surplus of crude would reach about 3.3 million barrels per day. Updated data indicates that the excess oil supply will account for nearly 4% of total global demand, significantly exceeding the forecasts of most other analysts. The primary reason for this imbalance is the increase in oil production during a period when consumption is growing very modestly.

Price Dynamics and Market Response

The agency’s report notes that oil demand will remain low until the end of 2025 and throughout 2026. Annual consumption growth is expected to not exceed 700,000 barrels per day over both years.

“Oil consumption will remain moderate for the remainder of 2025 and in 2026, leading to an anticipated annual increase of around 700,000 barrels per day over both years.”

Last Friday, the oil market experienced a significant price drop, triggered by a new escalation in the trade war between the U.S. and China. On October 14, benchmark Brent crude prices, which had partially recovered earlier, fell again to just over $62 per barrel. Meanwhile, Russian Urals oil is trading slightly above $58 per barrel, significantly reducing the revenue for the Russian Federation’s budget.