Egg Prices in Ukraine Are Rising: Seasonal Factors, Predictions, and Market Situation

In Ukraine, the prices of chicken eggs have been steadily increasing for the fourth consecutive week, and forecasts suggest that this trend will continue. Experts attribute the price hike to seasonal factors, a gradual rise in production costs, and the impact of exports.

This is reported by AgroReview

Seasonality and Price Formation Factors

Serhiy Karpenko, the executive director of the Ukrainian Poultry Farmers’ Association, explains that the current price increase is not sharp but occurs gradually due to sufficient product supply and low purchasing power among the population. According to him, wholesale prices at factories currently range from 43 to 45 hryvnias per dozen. Considering retail markups, eggs remain one of the most affordable sources of animal protein for Ukrainians.

“It has always been challenging to predict price formation in the egg market, especially today. It is quite difficult to forecast how the cost components of egg production will change, as there is a constant increase in the cost of inputs,” says Karpenko.

Since mid-August, the wholesale prices of eggs have gradually increased, adding about 20% to their value compared to the beginning of August. The greatest influence on future price formation will come from rising production costs, market factors, and consumer demand, which can change dynamically. Karpenko notes that egg prices exhibit pronounced seasonality – they are cheapest in the spring-summer period when supply from households increases, and with the onset of the autumn-winter season and falling temperatures, demand and producers’ prices rise.

Demand, Exports, and Egg Production

The expert emphasizes that the seasonal factor does not always operate uniformly. For instance, after the traditional price drop in May, prices remained stable during the summer of this year – this is linked to an increase in exports, which helped balance supply and demand and maintain relatively stable pricing in the market.

The Ukrainian poultry market remains oversupplied: production significantly exceeds domestic consumption. According to Karpenko, the volumes of products produced should be exported, as it is exports (about 40% of domestic production) that help maintain market balance. Any reduction in export supplies puts pressure on the domestic market and can lead to a decrease in wholesale prices.

The state of the industry remains stable: egg production in the country has fully recovered after the reduction in livestock in 2022, thanks to favorable price conditions in both domestic and foreign markets. The decrease in population has led to reduced domestic consumption, but this has been compensated by increased demand from EU countries, where production significantly declined due to outbreaks of avian influenza, while the population increased.

Currently, the seasonal factor is again influencing the situation: demand for industrial eggs is rising due to falling temperatures, leading to further increases in producers’ prices.

Current Egg Prices in Ukrainian Supermarkets

• At Varus, a dozen of ungraded chicken eggs C0 (highest category table eggs) is sold for 55.9 hryvnias.
• At Silpo, a dozen of eggs of category C1/C0 costs 49.9 hryvnias.
• At Novus, a dozen of C1 eggs weighing 60 g can be purchased for 46.9 hryvnias.

Thus, despite the rising prices, eggs remain a fairly affordable product for Ukrainian consumers, and market stability is ensured by the balance between production, domestic consumption, and exports.