Milk Prices in Ukraine Drop to 14 UAH: Farmers Shift to Meat Production
The dairy industry in Ukraine is in a deep crisis, which is not reflected in the retail prices at supermarkets. Despite the rising prices of dairy products for consumers, farmers are forced to sell milk at a price lower than the production cost, leading to significant financial losses.
This is reported by AgroReview
Reduction in Livestock and Financial Losses for Farmers
On farms, the purchase price of raw milk has fallen to 13.5–14 UAH/kg excluding VAT, while the production cost is 15–16 UAH/kg. As a result, farmers are incurring losses of 2–2.5 UAH for every liter of milk. Analysts from the dairy producers’ association predict further price declines — in critical months, the price could drop to 10–12 UAH/kg.
As of March 1, 2026, there are 953 thousand cows in Ukraine, which is 17% less than last year. The situation is particularly difficult in the private sector — over the year, the number of cows there has decreased by 28%. Given the economic unprofitability of production, many farmers are forced to sell cows for meat, contributing to the rise in beef prices: over the year, the price of cattle has increased by 34%.
“Farmers are moving to meat production — beef prices are rising, with cattle up +34% over the year. Selling a cow is more profitable than milking at a loss.”
Why Milk Prices Are Falling on Farms but Rising in Stores
The main reason for the decrease in purchase prices is the surplus of dairy products on the global market, which puts pressure on Ukrainian producers. At the same time, domestic costs for energy, fuel, and logistics are rising, which explains the increase in retail prices. Due to the long chain — from farmer to shelf — each link adds its own markup.
Analysts expect that in 2026, milk production in Ukraine may drop to 6.8 million tons, which is 20% less than the current level.
Forecasts for 2026: Dairy and Meat Markets
Stabilization of purchase prices is not expected until the third or fourth quarter of 2026, when the global market begins to recover. For now, small farms with herds of up to 500 cows — which represent 20% of the market and have the least financial buffer — will feel the most pressure.
It is forecasted that retail prices for dairy products will rise by 6–12% by the end of spring 2026 due to increased exports and logistics costs. Meat prices are expected to increase by about 10%. Hard cheese has already risen by 13% over the year and costs around 680 UAH/kg.
In the long term, there is a positive outlook: by 2028–2030, a shortage of quality milk is expected in the European Union, and Ukraine could become an important supplier if it manages to maintain its livestock. The Ministry of Economy has already appealed to the EU for financial support for farmers — this involves 160 euros per cow per year, with the total need estimated at 62 million euros.