Prices for Dairy Products in Ukraine Will Continue to Decrease Until Spring 2026
The global dairy market is undergoing significant changes: after a long period of rising prices, there is a sharp decline in prices for almost all categories of dairy products. This trend has already affected the Ukrainian market, and analysts predict that the decrease in dairy product prices will continue at least until spring 2026.
This is reported by AgroReview
Revival of Dairy Farming and Increase in Production
Throughout 2025, the revival of dairy farming in Ukraine has noticeably intensified. According to experts, the number of cows in enterprises and small farms has increased by 2.3%. Over ten months, raw milk production has risen by 7.6%, and dairy farms are expected to produce 0.2 million tons more milk by the end of the year compared to last year. The volume of milk delivered for processing also shows positive dynamics, with an increase from 3.2 million tons to 3.6 million tons.
Global Factors Affecting the Ukrainian Market
“In the fall, the situation became complicated due to a sharp drop in global prices: butter in the EU has decreased by more than 30%, cheese by almost a quarter, and the price of dry milk has significantly fallen. This has led to a decrease in purchasing prices for raw milk worldwide: FrieslandCampina has lowered them by almost 25% since August; prices have dropped in the USA, New Zealand, and Mercosur countries. Since November, the decline has significantly affected Ukraine, and it will continue into winter,” dairy producers note.
The global decrease in dairy product prices has significantly impacted the domestic market in Ukraine: purchasing prices for raw milk are falling, and producers and processors are under pressure from global market conditions. Experts predict that this trend will persist until spring 2026. Subsequently, when the supply of milk in the world decreases, prices may begin to rise. This will open new opportunities for Ukrainian suppliers and dairy product processors.
The low price of raw materials is already creating risks for small farms, which may not withstand competition and go bankrupt. At the same time, Ukraine has competitive advantages due to the presence of large agricultural enterprises with modern technologies, its own feed base, an average herd size of over 300 cows, and relatively low credit burdens. This market structure corresponds to the so-called “American model” and contributes to increasing the resilience of the industry even in unfavorable market conditions.