Ukrainian Dairy Farming Faces Threat of Mass Herd Reduction in Summer 2026
The dairy farming sector in Ukraine is under pressure from economic challenges that could lead to a reduction in milk production and a decrease in the number of cows in the coming months. According to industry experts, up to 20% of Ukrainian dairy farms are considering reducing their herd size due to loss of profitability.
This is reported by AgroReview
Main Factors Affecting the Dairy Business
The industry is facing a complex set of problems: a sharp increase in feed prices in 2026, rising prices for diesel fuel and fertilizers, as well as low purchasing prices for raw milk. At the same time, global markets, particularly in the EU and the USA, are oversaturated with milk and dairy products, which further pressures Ukrainian producers.
As a result, even stable operations do not guarantee the economic viability of farms. Industry representatives emphasize that many farms are balancing on the brink of unprofitability, with some already operating at a loss.
Inevitability of Herd Reduction and Market Prospects
Currently, most farms are still using last year’s feed reserves, which allows them to temporarily avoid drastic decisions. However, as these reserves are depleted, farmers will be forced to purchase more expensive feed, while the purchasing price for milk remains low, leading to increased costs and the threat of losing profitability.
“That is why May–June may become a moment of choice for many farms: either enter a new cycle with a high risk of losses or reduce herd size to lessen the burden on the business.”
Increasing purchasing prices for milk does not resolve the issue, as processors are also operating under conditions of low demand for finished products. The entire production chain appears to be closed: farmers cannot reduce production costs, processors are unable to pay more, and consumers are not willing to buy more expensive products.
Forecasts for milk production costs remain grim: an increase of another 20–25% is expected, which will further weaken the competitiveness of the Ukrainian dairy sector in both domestic and foreign markets.
Reducing herd sizes poses risks for the entire industry: decreased raw material volumes, increased vulnerability of processing, additional pressure on prices, and loss of positions for Ukrainian producers in the market.
The industry enters the summer of 2026 under conditions of high uncertainty. Rising costs, low purchasing prices, and overall pressure on profitability force farmers to make difficult decisions. Some farms may reduce production in the coming months, indicating a shift from seasonal difficulties to a systemic profitability crisis.