New Trump Tariffs Could Trigger Record Deforestation of Tropical Forests in Brazil
The growing influence of geopolitics on global demand for agricultural products is significantly impacting Brazil’s ecosystems. The economic benefits that Brazilian farmers gain amid trade disputes between the U.S. and China increasingly threaten the country’s unique natural resources, particularly the tropical forests of the Amazon.
This is reported by AgroReview
The Role of U.S. Tariffs and the Increase in Exports from Brazil
During Donald Trump’s first presidential term, the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods led to a sharp increase in China’s demand for Brazilian soybeans. This resulted in record agricultural production expansion at the expense of deforestation. In 2021, soybean prices reached $15 per bushel, and the area of forest destroyed in the Amazon exceeded 13,000 square kilometers — the highest level in the last fifteen years. Consequently, export revenues encouraged farmers to further clear land and destroy nature.
After 2018, when the U.S. raised tariffs, China banned the import of American soybeans, and Brazil doubled its supply of this crop to China, while beef exports increased fivefold. At the same time, the weakening of environmental controls during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency allowed farmers to massively burn forests to create agricultural land. In 2021, deforestation areas in the Amazon reached 13,200 square kilometers, while in the Cerrado savanna, it was 11,000 square kilometers.
New Threats to the Amazon Forests
The current Brazilian administration, led by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has intensified control over deforestation since 2023, achieving some reduction in the rate of forest destruction. However, the introduction of new trade tariffs by the U.S. could revive the destructive cycle. According to the Amazon Institute (Imazon), from August 2024 to February 2025, the area of degraded land in the Amazon region increased fivefold, reaching the highest levels in 15 years.
“Degraded areas are partially cleared or burned forests that are being prepared for agricultural use.”
At the same time, international pressure for environmental control in Brazil’s agricultural sector is decreasing. For example, the European Union has postponed the implementation of regulations to combat deforestation for a year, which may be interpreted by farmers as a signal to further expand activities in forested areas.
Despite the Brazilian government’s efforts to preserve forests, political instability ahead of the 2026 elections and the upcoming UN Climate Conference (COP30) complicate the situation. Official statistics on deforestation for August 2024 to July 2025 will only be released in November, but they will not reflect the peak of illegal fires, which traditionally occurs during the dry season starting in June. This could lead to a temporary concealment of the true scale of the problem.
If Brazil fails to halt the wave of deforestation, the tropical forests of the Amazon and the Cerrado savanna may face a new large-scale environmental disaster, jeopardizing global climate goals and biodiversity.